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    Fri 12/23 | 12:30 AM UTC | Fort Worth
    SpreadMoney Lineo/u
    Baylor Bears 5-6, 6-5 ATS
    BAYLOR -3-105
    BAYLOR -165
    Over 42-110
    Air Force Falcons 8-3, 5-6 ATS
    AF +3-115
    AF +140
    Under 42-110

    Expert Picks

    CFB | Baylor 15 @ Air Force 30 | 12/23 | 12:30 AM UTC

    Air Force +3.5 -110

    WIN

    ANALYSIS: Armed Forces Bowl. As expected, we've seen some weird bowl results thus far. Do I think Baylor has way more talent here? No question. The Bears also are playing only 90 miles from campus in Fort Worth (at TCU), but I doubt there's much of a home-field advantage for this lower-tier bowl. Baylor lost its final three to close the regular season, lost a starting offensive lineman and safety to the portal and fired its defensive coordinator and special teams coach. Air Force will feel comfortable in Fort Worth as it's the fourth game since the start of last season in the Dallas area for the school. It's going to be cold and windy tonight and that means a lot of running plays. Air Force (which rarely passes) leads the nation in rushing offense and is Top 10 in rushing defense. Service academies tend to thrive in bowl games because they are so disciplined (see news feed).

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    Matt Severance

    Severance Pays
    +600 6-0 IN LAST 6 AF ATS PICKS

    Season Splits

    5-6, 6-5 ATS
    8-3, 5-6 ATS
    All Games
    ALL
    All Games
    54%
    6-5
    5-6
    46%
    On Road or Neutral
    LOCATION
    On Road or Neutral
    50%
    3-3
    2-3
    40%
    As Favorite
    STATUS
    As Underdog or PK
    40%
    2-3
    0-0
    0%
    When Spread was -5.5 to -1.5
    SPREAD
    When Spread was +1.5 to +5.5
    0%
    0-3
    0-0
    0%
    Favored on Road or Neutral
    LOCATION & STATUS
    As Road Underdog
    0%
    0-1
    0-0
    0%
    vs Teams That Win >70% of Games
    OPP WIN%
    vs Teams That Win <50% of Games
    50%
    2-2
    2-3
    40%
    vs Teams Allowing <25 PPG
    OPP DEFENSE
    vs Teams Allowing 25 to 32 PPG
    25%
    1-3
    2-2
    50%
    After >8 Days Off
    REST
    After >8 Days Off
    54%
    6-5
    5-6
    46%
    vs AF
    HEAD TO HEAD
    vs BAYLOR
    0%
    0-0
    0-0
    0%