I should've grabbed this earlier in the week when North Carolina was favored, but it shouldn't matter. The Tar Heels are 5-9 on the road since Mack Brown returned as coach in 2019, and they went 0-4 in road games last year. On Saturday they will encounter a wild, sold-out environment and what's expected to be the biggest crowd in Kidd Brewer Stadium history. Carolina also has to face an App State offense that brings back QB Chase Brice (school-record 3,337 passing yards last season), two running backs with 1,000-yard seasons, four of five offensive line starters from last year and three of its top four tight ends.

A sloppy opener by UNC has precipitated dramatic odds movement of five points. The Tar Heels surely lacked motivation last Saturday after learning that about two dozen Florida A&M players would be held out. UNC did learn that Drake Maye will maintain the program’s strong QB tradition. He could make hay against a defense replacing seven starters and five of the top tacklers. Tar Heels veterans, having been beaten by App State three seasons ago, won’t take the hosts lightly.

There were two major takeaways from North Carolina's win against Florida A&M in Week Zero, both which play into taking the over in Saturday's game in Boone. First, redshirt freshman quarterback Drake Maye looks the part of his blue chip recruiting projections and his five touchdown performance suggests the Tar Heels' offense will be just fine in the post-Sam Howell era. Second, the defense has not seen the kind of immediate improvement some hoped with the arrival of Gene Chizik as DC. FAMU was able to move the ball effectively, so I absolutely believe App State will do so as well. Whoever executes better in the red zone will win what I think is going to be a close game, but no matter the straight up result we should see enough points to hit the over.