It's tough to know what either of these teams are going to look like. Georgia lost an absurd number of key players from its national title-winning squad (particularly on defense), while Oregon underwent a coaching change with a defensive-minded coach in Dan Lanning preparing to face his former team. I was already considering playing the total on this game only to see it surprisingly jump nearly two points approaching kickoff. The Ducks are likely going to struggle against one of the best (even if retooled) defenses in the nation, and given the Dawgs' offense may take a step back, staying under the total is worth a play.

Yes, Georgia lost a TON off last year's historically good defense, but there are still at least three expected 2023 NFL first-round picks there and Kirby Smart can just plug in other five-star recruits. Since 2019, Georgia has held its five Power 5 nonconference opponents to a total of 35 points. On offense, UGA lost its top two running backs (popular Fantasy rookie dynasty picks Zamir White and James Cook). Meanwhile, if anyone knows how to game plan vs. the Georgia offense, it's new Ducks coach Dan Lanning, the former UGA defensive coordinator. Oregon lost its QB, top running back and top wideout from last year. We know the defense will be good under Lanning's watch, and the Ducks have one of the best linebacker groups in the country led by Noah Sewell. Getting above the key number of 52 points (28-24, 35-17, etc. final score) could be huge for our Under play.

Georgia's first game after winning the national title comes against a program that will do everything in its power to mimic Georgia's success. After all, if anybody knows what the bluepring looks like, it'll be Dan Lanning, the man who was the defensive coordinator at Georgia last season. These are two teams led by their defense, and while more people are familiar with Georgia, Mario Cristobal didn't leave the cupboards bare in Eugene. Lanning inherits a team with plenty of talent on the defensive side of the ball.

Oregon starts a new era Saturday under coach Dan Lanning. His experience as the former defensive coordinator with the Bulldogs has to provide something of an edge to the Ducks' preparation efforts. Projected starting QB Bo Nix never beat Georgia while he was the signal-caller at Auburn but he gave the Bulldogs some headaches. Pretty much the entire starting defense for Georgia's national-title team was drafted and preparing to play on Sundays, though the Bulldogs still have plenty of leftover talent. Even so, Oregon has been good in these showcase spots. The Ducks stunned the college football world last year by soundly beating Ohio State on the road as a more than two-touchdown underdog. Even though its historically finesse ways are a concern, expect the Ducks to remain respectable.

This one boils down to two things -- Georgia's defense won't take a big step back and Oregon quarterback Bo Nix is a liability. The mass exodus in Athens was a big story during the NFL Draft, but coach Kirby Smart is just fine with Jalen Carter up front, Nolan Smith at linebacker and an ultra-talented secondary. Nix completed 56.4% of his passes, only threw on touchdown and was picked twice in three games vs. Georgia when he was at Auburn. Is that going to change? Nope. Georgia will jump out to a lead and then deflate the football for an easy Under.

Oregon has enough top-end talent to create some highlights, but I'm concerned about how the Ducks will hold up over 60 minutes in Atlanta against the reigning champs. Georgia might take a slight step back defensively, but it's from "historically great" to "one of the best units in the country" and I just don't think Oregon's personnel is suited to score on the Bulldogs like they did against Ohio State in Columbus last year. If Oregon covers it's because they've kept the game low-scoring, which might work for a half but I don't think it's sustainable when Georgia has a significant edge in competitive depth.