Arkansas State is led by a familiar face, former Florida State quarterback James Blackman, who will have success this season in the Sun Belt. But I expect the Red Wolves to have issues defensively. Take the Tigers.

Memphis beat visiting Arkansas State by 13 to open the 2020 season. The Tigers continue to lose head coaches to Power 5 schools but keep rolling along -- they were 8-3 in Ryan Silverfield's first season at the helm of the program in 2020. Memphis is one of only five FBS programs with at least eight wins each of the last seven seasons. Both clubs opened this year with wins over FCS foes, but it's a bit concerning that A-State was down 7-6 at the half to Central Arkansas. It's the first season as Red Wolves coach for Butch Jones, who is rotating QBs (usually not a good thing). Various models have the Tigers at least a TD better -- SportsLine's has them winning by 11 -- so we'll take 5.5. Memphis is 5-2 ATS in its past seven non-conference games.

Memphis ran for 324 yards last week against Nicholls and true freshman QB Seth Henigan managed a good game in passing for 265 yards and no picks. He should have done enough to keep the starting job with Arizona transfer Grant Gunnell believing the gig was his. Arkansas State getting a lot of respect here but can't pass up the small number.