There's so much momentum for Iowa State entering this game given its lofty expectations this season and the fact that it's hosting its rivals while looking to pick up a win in this series for the first time after five straight losses. The problem is that Kirk Ferentz's undefeated streak against Matt Campbell is not imaginary, and the Hawkeyes are an extremely talented team in their own right capable of taking advantage of any Cyclones mistakes. This pick is more about the spread than it is assuming a winner. This game can go either way. If I'm getting not only the three points but an extra 1.5, I'm leaning with the team with history on its side that matches up quite well in a close rivalry game.

The one glaring blemish for Iowa State coach Matt Campbell on his otherwise impressive resume is failing to get the upper hand in this in-state rivalry. The Hawkeyes have won five straight, though all signs point toward the Cyclones breaking through this year behind the experienced tandem of RB Breece Hall and QB Brock Purdy. The Hawkeyes are inexperienced on offense, but their reliable defense picked off Michael Penix three times last week and held a potent Indiana club to six points. There's just too much value with this key number to pass on the underdog, and the low total implies even more value with grabbing the points.

The game plan is simple for Iowa State... sell out to stop Tyler Goodson and force Spencer Petras to beat you with his arm. Iowa State has a large edge at QB with Brock Purdy, and has better play makers with Breece Hall and Xavier Hutchinson. My simulations make Iowa -6.6 better at home so I will gladly trust the model and fade the massive public dog that's getting over 70% of the tickets.

It's impossible to overstate the job Matt Campbell has done at Iowa State. He's got the Cyclones considered as Big 12 contenders, and they've posted four straight winning seasons for the first time since 1927. But despite all that, Campbell is yet to beat Iowa. Maybe this year he gets it done, but no matter how this game ends, I can't see it being anything but a close, hard-fought battle, so I'm taking the points.