Though I wish I had gotten in under a touchdown, Air Force is the clear side in this first branch of the Commander-In-Chief series. The Falcons posted the second-most rushing yards of any team in the FBS last week and have significant defensive advantages over the Midshipmen. Air Force is also expected to be favored against Army later this season as it looks to end a five-year trophy drought. Navy got absolutely demolished last week against Marshall and should still be stinging from that loss. This could be a double-digit win for the Falcons.

Air Force has improved and Navy has regressed since the Cadets’ 40-7 win in last year’s matchup. The Midshipmen have dropped six in a row straight-up, with last Saturday’s 49-7 collapse against Marshall a low ebb. The Midshipmen, unable to decide on a QB, deployed three of them, and none stood out. The Cadets’ 35-14 win over Lafayette revealed little, but their roster has been buttressed by 35 “turnbacks” — the Air Force euphemism for redshirt. Go ahead and engrave the school’s name on the Commander-In-Chief Trophy for 2021.

Now that this has dropped back under 6, let's take it. Air Force obliterated Navy 40-7 last September and with nine AFA defensive starters back, it's hard to see the Middies doing much better than seven points again. That's what they were held to last week in a blowout home loss to Marshall. Air Force rushed for 370 yards in an easy season-opening win over Lafayette in a glorified scrimmage. I have yet to find a model that has Air Force winning by less than a TD -- SportsLine's has it Falcons by 12. The home team has won the past seven in this series. That ends.

Since 2005, the three service academies have played 48 games against one another. In those 48 games, the Under has gone 38-9-1. Option teams run the ball far more often than other teams. That keeps the clock running, and that limits the overall number of possessions. You can't score twice on one possession, so it limits the overall ability to score points.