Nevada is pretty good, but now that this has fallen under 3, I have to take the Bears at home. Cal coach Justin Wilcox is a defensive guru who should be able to slow down Wolf Pack QB Carson Strong, the 2020 Mountain West Player of the Year. Cal is 9-0 in regular-season non-conference games during Wilcox's tenure. The Bears bring back 18 starters, including nine "super seniors." Plus, as I've said earlier, I believe home-field advantage will mean an incredible amount early this season after no fans in 2020. Just look at Virginia Tech on Friday, among others.

I played Nevada at +3.5 and I will have a sprinkle on the moneyline. Carson Strong provides a significant edge at QB as the Wolf Pack have a legit passing attack with Romeo Doubs and Elijah Cook that will force Cal into man coverage. I have major concerns about Chase Garbers and that offensive line. Garbers was sacked way too frequently last season and that will likely continue this season. Take the points.

We're going to grab this line at a flat -3 for max value on California after the number opened much higher at most outlets. Bay Area native Carson Strong was shunned by Cal and has become an NFL prospect for the high-powered Wolf Pack, who come into the season amid massive expectations. That's usually not a good sign for the Reno-based program, which tends to do its best work when viewed as an afterthought. The Bears have a veteran QB of their own in Chase Garbers and a rock-solid defense that returns almost all of its key players. We're getting major value in this reduced line.

Any time there's a game I suspect will be close and lower-scoring, but the underdog is the team with the clear advantage at QB, that's the direction I'm going. Carson Strong isn't a household name yet, but he's the next in line of Group of Five QBs nobody had ever heard of who "come out of nowhere" during NFL Draft season.