Wow, I'm thrilled this has dropped from 10 .. shocked it went all the way to 9. I previously picked Over the total of 56 points and for most of the same reasons, I like the Mountaineers to cover what is now a single-digit spread. They bring back 17 starters, including 14 "super seniors." That includes stud wideout Corey Sutton, who sat out last year. He has 17 TD catches in just 22 games at the school and can play at the next level. East Carolina is 4-11 ATS in its past 15 non-conference games. The Pirates can hang for maybe three quarters but will be worn down.

App State returns 10 starters from a top 20 defense last year, and welcomes Chase Brice (transfer) and Corey Sutton (injury/covid) to a strong offense that returns 8 starters. My simulations make APP state -13.4 against this ECU team that really struggles on the defensive side of the ball. Look for Brice to use his experience at Clemson and Duke to his advantage at this level. Shop around for the -9.5 in the market.

The talent gap would suggest a larger spread. App State went 9-3 under new coach Shawn Clark last season, with defeats to two teams that ended the season ranked and a third that pushed into and fell out of Top 25. That’s two more wins than coach Mike Houston has managed in two seasons at ECU. The Mountaineers welcome back all but one starter from a stingy defensive unit. The offense was no slouch and will be bolstered by WR Corey Sutton (17 TD receptions in 22 games), who elected to sit out 2020. Overall, App State unleashes 14 starters who returned for a fifth season, courtesy of the NCAA’s COVID-related policy on extending players’ careers.

I will be shocked if this game doesn't go Over the total. App State averaged nearly 34 points per game last year and brings back nearly everyone on offense but its QB -- and has a good transfer taking over there in Duke's Chase Brice. East Carolina averaged 30.2 points a season ago and brings back 10 offensive starters, including QB Holton Ahlers. Defensively, the Pirates were a sieve in 2020 in allowing 35.4 ppg. The total has gone Over in 11 of ECU's last 15 games.