Today's game will be a tough test for the Bearcats, who will be playing just their second road game this season, but I expect the Cincinnati defense to have the necessary answers in the second half to stymie the Knights. Grab the Bearcats.

Cincinnati is the No. 4 team in the country according to my power simulations. The Bearcats are 6-0 this season and winning by an average of 28 points a game against FBS opponents. They also are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games, while UCF is just 1-5 ATS in its last six. My model says Cincy covers almost 60 percent of the time, so you're getting strong value at this number. Take the Bearcats.

Cincinnati is for real. Its defense, per usual, is among the nation’s elite with a 10th-overall ranking and even better in interceptions and completions allowed. Its offense isn’t too shabby, either. The Bearcats have registered at least 38 points in each of their last four games. With an outside chance at a playoff berth, this might be the country’s most motivated team. UCF, typically, wields a potent offense but a shabby defense, which is rated 93rd. The absence of 10 players who opted out means these are not the Knights of recent vintage.