Last week's scare at Texas Tech was the best thing that could've happened to the Longhorns. They came way with many things to work on--tackling and special teams breakdowns, among others--but still won. Previous Texas teams would've lost that game. Now they return to Austin to face a TCU team that lost at home to Iowa State. In addition, quarterback Sam Ehlinger gets back his top receiver, Jake Smith, who should have a big game. My model says Texas covers almost 60 percent of the time, so you're getting good value with this number.

Three of Texas’ least favorite letters: T, C and U. Since the Horned Frogs joined the Big 12, they are 6-2 straight-up against the Longhorns, mostly as underdogs. TCU’s defense did get shredded by Iowa State, but so did the Horns’ by Texas Tech, which piled up 56 points. The Frogs unveiled an entirely new offensive line in their opener, and it still helped the unit generate 499 yards. They should score enough to stay within single digits of the Horns.

The Frogs historically have been a thorn for Texas, including last year when they ended the Longhorns' thin Big 12 title hopes. But this is a tough spot for a TCU club that is a little undermanned by its standards and facing a Texas team that narrowly escaped a disastrous upset loss at Texas Tech last week. The Longhorns might still struggle with Oklahoma next week, but they should be focused and poised for the dress rehearsal. Look for Sam Ehlinger and friends to put up plenty of offense and pull away.

I think the opening number at -13 was more appropriate than the current number at -11.5 at William Hill. Sam Ehlinger, Keaontay Ingram and the Longhorns should put up at least 35 points against this TCU defense. Look for a late score to give Texas the cover as I have them -14 at home in Austin.