This is all about Bo Nix and Auburn limiting turnovers and thus opportunities for Georgia's offense. The Tigers are coming off a bye week and playing at home, clear advantages. JaTarvious Whitlow may be back. The Auburn defense does not get enough credit despite limiting LSU more than any other team this season a couple of weeks ago. This is going to be a close game either way, and I want the points with the home team. Gus Malzahn coaches well off the bye, and this is a good enough Tigers team to get the job done.

This number has moved from an opener of -3, suggesting the early action has been on Auburn. But the number now provides value on a Georgia team that is on a mission to reach the SEC title game and put itself in position to reach the College Football Playoff. The Bulldogs shut out Missouri last week despite relatively poor execution on offense. Auburn is talented and well-coached, but freshman QB Bo Nix has struggled against top-notch defenses in its two losses. He's about to face the toughest one yet, and that's where the edge lies for Georgia.

I'm more than a little mad at myself here. I waited too long to make a play on the total, which opened between 44 and 45 but has since been bet down to 40.5, removing all the value. Still, that total shrank for a reason. These are two teams who are better defensively than they are offensively, so I expect this to be a low-scoring, sluggish affair. That puts points at a premium, and Auburn has been so much better at home. Don't be shocked if the Tigers pull off another upset, but the points are the safer play.