The Under is 10-1 in Michigan State's last 11 games as an underdog and 10-3 in its last 13 conference games. Both teams have struggled on offense with quarterbacks who complete less than 60 percent of their passes and have combined for just 24 touchdown passes in 18 games. Take the Under.

Michigan's rating dropped enough to where we can say it is actually underrated. The Spartans aren’t up to their past standards and have lost their last four and gone 0-5 ATS in their last five. Michigan State had covered 10 straight against Michigan until last year. Michigan covers again.

For the second time in as many years, Michigan State has been perhaps the most disappointing team among Power Five clubs. Taking to the Spartans to a playoff bid has earned coach Mark Dantonio a ton of slack, but the goodwill should be about to run dry. They have lost four straight, all by blowout with the exception of last week's epic collapse against Illinois. Michigan State still needs two more wins just to get a bowl bid. It's safe to assume the Spartans will get past Maryland and Rutgers, and also safe to bet on them giving rival Michigan a hard time first.

Usually rivalry games are tough to get a good gauge on, but this season's Michigan/Michigan State game doesn't offer that same challenge. The Spartans are reeling offensively, and it's been a big reason why they've not had the success this season. The Wolverines have been a much better team since their loss at Wisconsin, and have gotten back on the winning track since their loss two weeks ago against Penn State. Michigan has the focus to avoid the slip-up against Sparty. Lay the points with Michigan.

The last we saw Michigan State it was blowing a 31-10 lead after three quarters against Illinois. Now it's hitting the road to face its hated rival. All of that led to this line being inflated. Since Jim Harbaugh returned to Ann Arbor these rivals have split four games with the road team winning each. The average margin has been 7.75 points, and no game featured a final margin greater than 14 points. Michigan State has covered 10 of the last 11 games, and the last five in Ann Arbor. Grit your teeth and take Sparty.

It is plausible that Michigan State, with a 25-point lead and victory over Illinois seemingly sealed last Saturday, started looking ahead. Uh-oh. The Spartans were victimized by the season’s biggest collapse. Normally, a team might take a week to recover. Not so in this case, with the next opponent being Michigan State's ultra-rival. Spartans coach Mark Dantonio has the secret sauce against Michigan, having covered five straight times in Ann Arbor. Overall, Michigan State enjoys a 10-1 against-the-spread streak in the series. Michigan comes off an open week, yet has covered just once in the last eight successful scenarios.