The Pirates are 3-5 with new head coach Mike Houston, who came from James Madison with a defensive background. East Carolina has finished 3-9 the last three years. Meanwhile the Bearcats have been +10 in turnover margin the last three weeks, which I expect to revert back to the mean. Maybe the Pirates even win the turnover battle. Take the points with ECU.

The rebuilding Pirates have been surprisingly competitive this year, but are coming off a disappointing home showing against South Florida. The Bearcats come off their second bye week of the season. they face big AAC tests later this month with Temple and Memphis, but it's difficult to envision them at maximum motivation against an ECU club that should be hungry for a respectable performance.

Few teams with an offense ranked as low as Cincinnati’s at No. 85 can comfortably allot two-dozen points to an underdog. The Bearcats’ O has benefited vastly from 19 turnovers caused by the defense and special teams, including 14 in the past three games. Such a pace is likely unsustainable. Cincy has failed to cover on five of its seven latest road trips.

The Bearcats are gunning for a spot in a New Year's Six bowl game, and they have the ingredients to accomplish that. Coach Luke Fickell has a balanced team that does a great job of forcing turnovers. ECU has improved a lot under new coach Mike Houston, but this matchup is too tough to overcome.