This is a big game for WVU and QB Will Grier. One of my concerns is the road environment combined with the early start time for this game. The Red Raiders will be ready to play at home. I'm expecting another big game from Alan Bowman on what should be a shootout. My model makes WVU -4 on a neutral field and -1 on the road. With 60 percent of the bets on WVU I'll gladly take this opportunity to fade the public road chalk. Take the points.

There are plenty of good reasons to like Texas Tech in this spot, particularly considering it's a home game, but I think the Red Raiders are overvalued here coming off a surprise win at Oklahoma State (in which the Cowboys somehow only scored 17 points) and a 63-point showing against Houston. The 20-point loss to Ole Miss is a better indication of what TT is all about, and while I err on giving West Virginia's defense too much credit for beating up on Kansas State and Tennessee -- two programs down in the dumps this year -- I like the fact that the Mountaineers can match the Raiders score for score while clearly having a better defensive unit. It's taking a lot of willpower to also not put in an over bet, but that total is simply absurd even for these teams. Give me WVU to win by a touchdown or more and cement itself as a legitimate contender in the Big 12.

The Red Raiders are all about offense, but will be tested by the co-stingiest scoring defense in the country with an average yield of 12.3 points. As long as Heisman Trophy contender QB Will Grier doesn’t oversleep for the early kickoff, the Mountaineers will score plenty against a marginally improved Tech defense. West Virginia has taken the last four straight-up in the series, and Tech is prone to commit penalties.