When solid defensive teams face off in a tournament finals with no NCAA berth locked up, the Under is usually the better option. Dayton allowed 72 points per game this season, VCU 70. One reason for the modest numbers is pace. The Flyers lean slow, with a 194th ranking for possessions per game. The outcome of their second matchip this season -- VCU 99-73 -- seems like an anomaly. The first meeting -- VCU 68-62 -- seems more likely to mirror this A-10 finals. The Rams are probably in the Dance regardless of the outcome but cannot be certain. For Dayton, it's win or a disappointing NIT invitation. Nerves could help keep the scoring down a bit.

As well as Dayton has played of late, including its stunning last second upset of the top seed St. Louis, VCU is quite simply the much better team here in the Atlantic 10 final. The Rams are rated 31 spots higher in KenPom and boast wins of 26 and 6 points over the Flyers this season. I think they win on Sunday by close to double-digits and get themselves an automatic NCAA Tournament berth in the process.