Quick turnaround road double for BYU, which didn't look good Saturday in West Virginia and as everyone has noted has fallen apart without Richie Saunders. The Cougs will have the best player in the floor in AJ Dybantsa, but perhaps the next four belong to the Bearcats in their home finale. I am well aware I am the fourth capper on this -- not sure if Larry, Bruce, Thomas and myself have ever been wrong on the same game before. First time for everything .... but my luck is simply due to change on college hoops. Math says it has to. Also am covered in four-leaf clovers (they itch). UC is playing its best ball of the season and could use the NCAA resume boost.

There are parallel arguments both ways here that support the surging Bearcats. "Surging" is one definite reason as Cincy has won five of six, four of those by double-digit margins, as it has climbed back to the periphery of the Big Dance bubble and maybe help save HC Wes Miller's job in the process. Miller has had four different leading scorers across the past six games, the sort of balance that BYU counterpart Kevin Young can only dream about as the Cougs look to be appeasing frosh star and nation's top scorer (24.9 pgp) AJ Dybantsa. The BYU offense become increasingly Dybantsa-specific lately, and as AJ's number of shots have increased, so have the frequency of Cougar losses (now 8 of 12). Play Cincinnati

Having a key injury late in the season always creates an adjustment period for a team. For BYU, they are a different team without Richie Saunders and now can move forward without being a ranked team. Cincinnati’s strength at home has featured wins in six out of their last seven home games. That has created a value spot to fade them, as BYU does enough to cover the short number.

Since losing Richie Saunders to a season-ending ACL injury, the Cougars are 1-3 straight-up. Cincinnati has won five of six thanks to its defense, which is up to No. 13 in KenPom. It's Senior NIght in Cincinnati, and the Bearcats must win to keep their NCAA Tournament hopes alive. Lay the small number.

I am taking Cincinnati early on the ML because I think the line will go up. These are two teams headed in opposite directions and a lot has to do with health. The Bearcats got freshman guard Shon Abaev back against Oklahoma State and come into Tuesday's matchup with a full roster. Meanwhile, BYU hasn't been the same since Richie Saunders went down with a season-ending injury, losing three of four. Cincinnati has been good at home in Big 12 play and the Bearcats look to be peaking at the right time with five wins in their last six games. I like that trend to continue on Tuesday. Play the Bearcats ML or on the spread up to -2.5.