First Four in Dayton. Think you can basically flip a coin for this one -- KenPom has them ranked 41 and 42 nationally -- and that Xavier is only favored because the game is 60 miles or so from its campus. This way, we can't lose on a buzzer-beater. UT has won at least one NCAA Tournament game three straight years and has two good transfers with plenty of Dance experience in Arthur Kaluma (Creighton) and Tramon Mark (Houston). Mark's defense could be crucial vs. red-hot XU guard Ryan Conwell. And UT's Tre Johnson is one of the best freshmen in the country. Do I play this game if not in the Dance? Probably not.

This ought to be a better watch in the First Four than last night's UNC-San Diego State blowout in Dayton. We're relatively sure about seeing a brisk pace, as both have offense (combining for 157 ppg), and some real stat-stuffers such as the X pair of vet F Zach Freemantle (17.3 ppg) and Indiana State transfer G Ryan Conwell (16.8 ppg). Meanwhile, Texas G Tre Johnson (19.8 ppg) is one of the nation's star frosh and one of four Longhorns to score in double-digits. Both have also been trending strong to the over (Musketeers 10-3 last 13, Longhorns 12-1 last 13), and Texas games reaching 150 points in 10 of the last 11 thru last week's SEC Tourney. Play Texas-Xavier Over (NCAA at Dayton)

These teams are virtually identical in KenPom metrics but one played in a suspect conference where the perennial champ was way down and the other played in a 14-bid juggernaut and beat a big dance 3 seed in SEC toruney and pushed a 2 seed pretty good. Texas finished strong after a dip and this is a pick 'em game to me and I'm getting 2.5 from the more seasoned side. I love the draw for whichever teams wins this to do some damage in the field of 64, and quality play-in teams tend to come in hot. Some of these SEC teams are going to falter, for sure, but I like what I've seen of the Horns lately.