Troy's defense has been in lock-down mode in two Sun Belt tourney tests, with opponents scoring 59 and 60 points. A comparable showing in the finals would assure an Under. Arkansas State can score in bunches, but a trend is worth noting. The Red Wolves reached the 90s in their last three regular season outings, only to dip into the mid-70s for both tourney games. With an NCAA berth at stake, mid-major finalists are inclined to slow things down slightly, which should keep the eventual total south of 140.