Illinois has beat Michigan 8 straight times and only one has been close. But that changes today. Michigan's a better all-around team this year and I think they’re five points better. Illinois is 18-11 on the season and 4-5 on the road. They just beat Iowa to end a three-game losing streak, two of which were on the road; they've lost four of their last five on the road. They shoot only 30% from 3. Michigan shoots 48% from the field on offense and allows 40% on defense. Michigan is 13-1 at home. Michigan wins.

At one point, Illinois looked like one of the best teams in the Big 10. They’ve very struggle of late, losing three of their last four. The Wolverines defense has been great this entire season but they still have difficulty protecting the ball and sustaining leads. Michigan is only 6-11 ATS in conference play with seven of their last eight games being decided by three points or less.

Illinois has dropped out of the Top 25, and now surprisingly has double digit losses with eleven overall. Often times in any sport once a great streak ends, the momentum fades for a mini stretch for that team. I’m expecting that here with Michigan who continues to toe the line of close wins, with their last nine wins by four points or fewer. Take the Illini here plus the points.

The Wolverines win a ton ... they just don't cover that much. They win ugly and do just enough to win, especially at home. Only home conference loss vs Sparty and they seemed to have that game in hand. Illinois can't shoot or run its offense well on the road and defense became an issue, too. ILL has lost 4 of 5 on the road and just 3-6 ATS on road in Big 10. We just a need a one-point loss here. ILL three-point shooting is a real problem, they take too many bad shots and a wildly inconsistent. Not equipped to win old-school throwback game if that's what this becomes. Michigan has a big man who can match Illinois. Homecourt matters in Big 10.