The Zags haven't been trustworthy vs. the line but loom as the much lesser of two evils in this Battle of the Palouse. That's because the bottom has fallen out for Wazzu, partly due to injuries, as recent results (including no covers last five) confirm, with heavy recent losses to Santa Clara, USF, and Saint Mary's. Those were all on the road but given the Zags' relative proximity to Pullman expect their rabid fan base to make this feel not like a normal road game. Gonzaga won the first meeting more comfortably than the 88-75 scoreline suggests, when the Cougs couldn't slow 6-9 Graham Ike (21 points), and Gonzaga's 88 ppg offense (ranks 2nd) is off a 107-point explosion vs. Pepperdine. Play Gonzaga

Gonzaga absolutely torched Washington State's defense in the first matchup (88-75 Zags win) with a hyper-efficient showing that exposed the Cougars' weaknesses defending inside. Graham Ike had 21 points on 8-of-11 shooting in that matchup, and I expect he'll be a factor once again in a similarly efficient offensive showing in the rematch.

The Bulldogs have struggled against teams in their weight class but have been pummeling the bottom half of the West Coast Conference. Since losing to Saint Mary's, Gonzaga has beaten Loyola Marymount by 20, Pacific by 17, a good San Francisco team by 11 and Pepperdine by 52. The Zags beat Washington State by 13 at home despite the Cougars shooting 53.3 percent. That was when Washington State was playing well. Now the Cougars have dropped six of seven, the win coming by one point over Pepperdine.

A-rated play from our model, which has the Zags by 4. Thought about waiting until tomorrow to see if we could get another half-point or more but tend to think this only drops a bit. It's the biggest WCC home game in Washington State history, which isn't saying much since the Cougs are in the league for the first time. They have just two wins overall in their past eight but both at home -- and WSU also nearly upset first-place Saint Mary's in Pullman and did beat third-place San Francisco there. Washington State lost by 13 at Gonzaga on Jan. 11, but it was only a 3-point margin at the half. Perhaps the second-place Zags look past this toward Saturday's showdown with SMC.