Mississippi State has won three of their last eight and covered only once in their last eight. SEC conference is tough and the last two wins for Mississippi State have been Georgia and South Carolina. They currently sit 10th in the conference. With Florida, we've got them coming off a huge win at Auburn and they won five of their last six. Florida has only lost three games this season, Mississippi State has six losses. The question is can Florida maintain their great level of play on the road two games in a row? Mississippi State has been the team having trouble in the SEC, not Florida. The spread probably should be higher in this game so I'll lay the small price.

No play on the spread here but I think Florida will be able to continue to produce at a high clip offensively even in a potential letdown spot after the Auburn win. The Gators have enough high-level scoring options to be able to sustain production in an off night for one or two players, and Mississippi State has given up at least 80 points in each of its last four home games. It should be a fast game, with plenty of possessions and the Gators will turn those opportunities into points.

I get this is a tough spot for Florida playing its second-straight road game after upsetting No. 1 Auburn but I don’t agree with the spread being this low. I make the Gators -4 in this matchup, so I see value with them on the moneyline. Florida has a massive edge in the paint here. The Gators should dominate the offensive boards and get easy baskets against a Mississippi State defense that ranks 12th in two-point defense in SEC games. Another plus for the Gators is second-leading scorer Alijah Martin is expected back after missing the Auburn game. Mississippi State has already lost to Missouri, Alabama and Kentucky at home. Bulldogs are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games. I'll take Florida on the ML.