Alabama’s defense was the big question mark coming into the tournament. However, they’ve been holding opponents to under 38% shooting in their last three games. The Crimson Tide are going to shoot the three regardless as they averaged 26 attempts over their last three games. Clemson’s guards have been defending the perimeter at a high level as they’ve been holding their opponents to less than 20% shooting from beyond in the arc in the tournament. The Tigers have the better defense, overall, and their guard’s matchup well so they're the more battle tested team to this point.

Clemson's best hope is controlling the pace, an area it which is it quite skilled. The Tigers rank 236th in possessions per game. They stand 32nd in KenPom in adjusted defensive efficiency. Not to be overlooked is Alabama's pair of points explosions in the tournament were sandwiched around a 133-point outing with Grand Canyon. Clemson yielded 56 and 64 in its first two NCAA games, then held Arizona, the nation's third-ranked offense, to 15 points below its average of 87. The veteran, unfazed Tigers can turn down the temperature and deliver an outcome in the 150s.

A good explanation might be needed from the oddsmakers to put Bama as this sort of a favorite on a neutral court against the same Clemson team that won in Tuscaloosa back on November 28. The Tigers held the Tide shooters to just 34% from the floor that night, and, in the words of Nate Oats, were "simply tougher" than Bama. PJ Hall, who scored 23 for Clemson in the first meeting, remains a very awkward matchup for Bama, and the Tigers are unlikely to be spooked with all of the seniors and fifth-year players on the floor for Brad Brownell. Is the Tide defense really improved? Play Clemson (NCAA at Los Angeles)

Typically in a repeat matchup I will take the prior winner. In this case I’ll make the exception and back Alabama. In non-conference play Clemson’s first true test was against Alabama, while the Crimson Tide had come off a tournament. As a result, Clemson wore tired out Alabama down the stretch outscoring the Crimson Tide by fifteen points in the final thirteen minutes. Look for Alabama to give the Tigers problems with their pace for forty minutes, as we have seen Clemson struggle to score in second halves. Back Alabama.