Baylor finished the season 3rd in the Big 12 while Clemson finished 5th in the lesser ACC. To Clemson's credit, they did play the top tier of the ACC very tough (UNC/Duke), but they also had some troubling losses down the stretch (ND/BC). Baylor can beat you in a myriad of ways and that includes cleaning up on the boards and perimiter shooting. I also think they have the type of star power than can carry them through big tournament games. I'm not sure which Clemson team we're going to get in this one, but I'm also not sure it matters.

Statistically, Clemson turned in one of its best defensive performances of the season in its 77-56 win against New Mexico. I credit Brad Brownell for getting the Tigers locked in for the challenge but I’m not ready to say this is all of the sudden a lockdown defensive team. Both of these teams can score at an extremely high level and with Baylor already having some issues defensively I think we see a back-and-forth that keeps the game competitive down the stretch with plenty of buckets to help take us over the total.

The Baylor Bears have faced the third most challenging schedule overall, but they ranked 101st against non-conference opponents. On the other hand, the Clemson Tigers played the 33rd toughest schedule and were 69th in terms of non-conference opponents. Clemson has a higher ranking in free throw percentage (9 vs. 103), rebounds per game (78 vs. 198), turnovers (53 vs. 175), and blocks (83 vs. 198). According to advanced analytics, the Tigers have a better overall defense. We must take the points in this spot!

The only thing you should know about this matchup is that Clemson lost three of its last five games. The three teams the Tigers lost to were some of the worst in the ACC: Boston College, Wake Forest and Notre Dame. Are they ready for this big of a matchup? The team Clemson beat in the tournament was New Mexico. Baylor shoots 48.6% from the field, which is 20th in the NCAA and the Bears shoot 39.4% from 3-point range, which is seventh. Baylor scores 80.9 per game, which is far greater than Clemson. This is an offensive mismatch. Baylor went 19-11-3 ATS. Baylor to cover.