Dylan Disu appears unlikely to play. Texas' big man has had the hot hand and, despite the Longhorns' depth, he will be missed. Miami's hand has been afire as its guards are shooting lights-out. Minus Disu, Texas' only glaring weakness -- rebounding -- will be felt. While Longhorns interim coach Rodney Terry has has a golden touch, the experience of Jim Larranaga gives the Canes' another edge.

Texas has been executing its game plan as designed, and the result has been almost the same in every game this month as it has won the last seven, covered at a 7-0-1 pace and stayed Under in seven of eight. Defense and execution are why the Longhorns are in this spot. They’re allowing an average of 62 points over their last five games. The Under is the best play.

Miami has looked amazing in its three Tournament games, winning and covering after losing to Duke in the ACC Tournament. But this Texas squad has hit its peak as it all came together at the beginning of the month. The Longhorns have gone 7-0-1 against the spread, and it's been all about their defense. The players are unified and executing well after a lull in the season when head coach Chris Beard was let go. Expect Texas to cover.

This game isn't all that different than what we had with UConn and Gonzaga Saturday. While the styles are different, they're both very efficient offenses (two of the best in the country), but only one of the teams is strong defensively. How'd that work for Gonzaga against UConn? Miami tries to outscore you, but Texas has the defenders on the perimeter than can keep the Canes' guards in check.

Miami is playing at an elite level on both ends of the floor, and defensively, it can slow down Texas' attack. The Hurricanes also are the healthier team, as I don't expect Longhorns F Dylan Disu to play, and that should give Miami an even bigger edge on the boards. Add in veteran coach Jim Larranaga's ability to scheme against a potentially Disu-less team and I think the Hurricanes may steal this one outright, but I'll take the points.

Remember last year's Elite Eight matchup between a Big 12 team and Miami? It didn't go so well for the Hurricanes, as eventual national champion Kansas demolished them, 76-50. While I don't expect the margin to be as significant on Sunday, I think a double-digit victory is well in the cards for the Longhorns. During their current seven game winning streak, Texas' average margin of victory is 13 points. Just visualizing a UConn-Texas semifinal matchup next Saturday is everything we college basketball fans need to see. The Longhorns win with ease on Sunday afternoon.

My simulations make this number 144.5 with the short turnaround and prep time for this matchup. Texas has the nice edge defensively and this projects to be a matchup where the Longhorns want to play more controlled halfcourt game. I'm on the Under.