VCU has been much more efficient, offensively, than Saint Mary’s to end the season. And while the Rams have a very good defense themselves, they haven’t seen a defense like this all season. The Gaels rank 10th in defensive efficiency in the country, with opponents shooting 45.6 percent on the season. VCU can be very careless with the ball and Saint Mary’s has the guard play to generate steals, making their opponent uncomfortable. If the Gaels big men can stay out of foul trouble and play their half-court game, which the Rams don’t want to do, VCU may get frustrated. I’m on Saint Mary’s.

VCU is riding a nine-game win streak (7-2 ATS) while St. Mary’s has lost two of its last three. SMC has allowed opponents to shoot 47% in its last five. VCU is getting better defensively, allowing only 40% shooting in its last five and 41% for the season. VCU is hot right now and I think it carries over into this game. Take VCU to cover.

Low-scoring games are always going to favor a multiple-possession underdog, but there's a matchup wrinkle that I really like for VCU. Both Gonzaga and BYU have disturbed Saint Mary’s offensive rhythm with pressure defense in the last couple weeks, which Mike Rhoads has surely noted in preparation for this game. VCU needs the chaos to get easy buckets -- half-court offense is not the Rams' strong suit -- so I think we see a lot of press defense and some sloppy possessions in a game that might be a race to 55.

Saint Mary's had a better season than VCU, the Gaels knocking off Gonzaga and finishing 26-7 in a better conference. The Rams needed to win the Atlantic 10 Tournament to get in. VCU, however, has been the better team down the stretch. The Rams, who have won nine in a row, rank 10th in defensive efficiency since Feb. 1. In their conference tourney final against Dayton, the Flyers finished the game shooting 0 for 15 as VCU won 68-56. The Gaels like to play at a very slow pace but the Rams -- who should have more fans with the game in Albany -- will speed them up and make them uncomfortable.