Arkansas began the season with plenty of injuries but have really turned it around with a healthy Nick Smith Jr. returning. Illinois tends to struggle against good defenses and the Razorbacks are in the top-20 in terms of defensive efficiency. Both teams struggle from three but this game will be won in transition and the paint. The Fighting Illini have difficulty controlling the ball in crunch time and take costly shots from deep if they fall behind while the Razorbacks have the ability to limit those opportunities as they guard the perimeter very well. I’m on Arkansas.

There is inherent risk in siding with a team that underachieved in the regular season while wishing/hoping it will match the potential in the Dance. However, Arkansas can cite excuses, with injuries throwing off its young roster. Budding NBA player Nick Smith Jr averaged just 14 points in the regular season but has exceeded 23 points in four of the past five outings. The Razorbacks are not exactly flying high into the tournament, but the Illini enters on a 1-3 straight-up slide.

West Region first-round game from Des Moines. Now that Nick Smith Jr. is healthy and playing like the lottery pick he will be in a few months, the Hogs are more than capable of a Final Four run. Yes, they have lost four of five but look at the opponents and all were competitive. The only decent team Illinois has beaten in the past month was Northwestern and the Illini had to rally from down 18 to do that. Frankly, I think the whole Big Ten was rather blah. That conference hasn't won a title since Sparty's Flintstones in 2000 (feels like yesterday in a way), and that drought isn't ending this year. KenPom ranks Arkansas 13 spots higher than the Illini.

Eric Musselman has led the Razorbacks to back-to-back Elite Eight appearances and guided Nevada to a Sweet 16 back in 2018, so at this point I've got him a plus-value tournament coach worth at least a couple points on the handicap. Throw in the game-changing freshman guard Nick Smith -- a potential top-five pick in the NBA Draft -- and it tilts the scales of a coin-flip kind of game in the Hogs' favor. I would not take this spread if it gets to 3 or higher, but since I like Arkansas to win I'll lay the bucket.