UCLA plays good defense and allows only 64.2 points per game, but six of its last eight games have gone Over the total. North Carolina just beat two really good teams to get to the Sweet 16, and the Tar Heels did so by ramping up the pace early. Five of the Tar Heels' last seven have gone Over the total. The Over went 21-13 in UNC games this season. Over is the top play in this game.

I'm playing UCLA both on the spread and money line. The Bruins are 27-7 despite Johnny Juzang missing five games, Cody Riley 10, Tyger Campbell three and so on. Now Jaime Jaquez (14.0 ppg, 5.7 rpg) is dealing with an ankle injury. He'll likely gut it out. But even if he can't play, UCLA has strong depth in Peyton Watson and Jaylen Clark. Look for the Bruins to build on their dominant second half versus Saint Mary's. -- 27 points allowed -- and cool off the red-hot Tar Heels.

I have UCLA to make the Final Four at +650 so you know I love them in this matchup. North Carolina is on an incredible roll and has burned me twice in this tournament. But the Tar Heels remain suspect defensively, allowing an average of 79 points in 12 games versus NCAA Tournament teams. They especially struggle to defend the mid-range game, a UCLA staple. Jaime Jaquez (ankle) is expected to play. If he's ineffective, the Bruins can turn to Jaylen Clark or Peyton Watson. Lay the small number.

North Carolina looked great as it pulled away from Duke in the regular season finale and rolled over Marquette basically from the tip, but this isn't a team that has been elite in close games. Even in games they win, the Tar Heels' late-game execution has been suspect and that doesn't bode well going up against Mick Cronin and a UCLA team with versatility up and down the rotation. If the game is going to be close, which the oddsmakers are suggesting, I think the Bruins will win the clutch possessions and cover the number.

The Tar Heels have a massive advantage in rebounding. I'm shocked the line is this high. UCLA will be doing something for the first time this season - playing with six days of rest. North Carolina is 3-0 when having six days' rest and 6-1 against UCLA in their last seven matchups. I have been more impressed with the Tar Heels' wins in the Tournament than the Bruins' victories. Take the underdog.