I was ready to take Boise State and the points ... but then came the surprising news that five-star Memphis freshman Emoni Bates, who hasn't played since Jan. 27 due to a lower back injury, is expected to go. Bates certainly hasn't lived up to the billing of once being the top-rated recruit in the nation, but he did average 10.4 points and 3.6 rebounds and gives the Tigers that much more size to throw at Boise State. Will Bates start or play heavy minutes? Almost surely not, but that added depth can't hurt.

Memphis turns the ball over at an insane rate, ranking them near the bottom of all college basketball. Boise State ranks in the top 80 of forcing turnovers on defense, so I expect the Broncos to make things difficult for Memphis on offense. Boise State is a veteran team, with five of their top six players all seniors. With well over 60% of the public on Memphis, I will gladly take more than one possession worth of points with a tough Boise State who has battled against tough teams in the Mountain West all season. Memphis is 11-14-1 ATS as a favorite while Boise State is 7-2 ATS this season as an underdog.

My original plan here was to take Memphis. It had been one of the better teams in the country over the last month until losing to Houston, and I thought I could take advantage of a bad line. Turns out, Memphis is now getting a little too much credit. The Tigers have the best player on the court in Jalen Duren, but they turn the ball over too much, and their subpar rebounding could haunt them against a big Boise team.

If Boise State is going to win this game it needs to keep scoring down, because Memphis is going to be able to be able to win a back-and-forth contest with better high-end talent. The Broncos have shown the ability to dictate styles all season en route to Mountain West regular season and tournament titles, and their size can help power the effort to make this a defensive battle.

I'm back fading Memphis again, I have Boise winning this game in my model's bracket so this is a gimme here getting 2.5 points. Boise has a top 20 defense and we just saw how Memphis did against a stout Houston side. I think the Tigers will be tested and ultimately fail against a Broncos team I've been high on since the start of the year. Boise is playing some of their best basketball of the year and should be able to move on to the next round. Take the 2.5 just in case it ends up being a close loss.