With plenty to play for in terms of holding on to the NCAA Tournament bubble, I understand why Xavier figures to be the no-brainer pick for many. But I don't think the Musketeers have been good enough to be trusted with a multiple-possession spread. Butler is 6-2 against the spread in its last 8 games and lost by just 2 at Xavier in early February. Xavier, meanwhile, is just 4-9 in their last 13 after a 14-3 start to the season, including a 1-5 ATS mark in their last 6 games.

Butler lost both regular-season meetings with Xavier, dropping the first one at home by 15 points. But the Bulldogs took it down to the wire in Cincinnati and lost by only two. Butler has covered in seven of its last 10 games. The Musketeers are 4-12 ATS their last 16 contests.

Big East Tournament from New York and I will play this with Eastern Washington over Northern Arizona (won't post that one on SL, though, because it's above -300) -- check out SportsLine's parlay calculator for the price. Xavier is on the NCAA Tournament bubble and absolutely can't lose this game. CBS Sports' Jerry Palm has the Musketeers currently as a No. 10 seed in the Big Dance and that seems a bit generous. XU will not get a bid with a loss here. Butler has been a huge disappointment, is 0-2 vs. Xavier and has lost five straight.

Xavier finished the regular season on a 2-7 SU skid, one of those victories coming versus lowly Georgetown. The Musketeers did sweep Butler, but remember, Bulldogs senior leader Bo Hodges (10.4 ppg, 6.5 rpg) did not play in the first meeting (87-72 win at Butler). Hodges was in the lineup for the rematch, and Xavier won by two. While Butler closed on a five-game skid, the losing streak included a 1-point defeat to Providence, a six-point loss at Seton Hall and an eight-point loss at Marquette. In fact, the Bulldogs have covered six of their last eight overall and nine of their last 12 when getting points. Grab the points in a game that should go down to the wire.