The Bears handled Villanova by 11 despite going 3 of 19 from deep. I'm expecting a big bounceback from Baylor's 3-point shooters, as Arkansas doesn't defend the trey all that well. And the Bears are the nation's top 3-point shooting team. Look for Baylor to improve to 10-3 ATS in its last 13 neutral-site games.

Offensively against Villanova, Baylor did not look like a team that should be in the Elite 8. The Bears made up for it with stout defense and poise amid a trying first 30 minutes. After surviving that scare, look for Baylor to step up its level of play and intensity against the Razorbacks. Play Baylor.

The Razorbacks have been the cardiac kids since the beginning of March, playing close games all the way to the Elite 8. Baylor knows it and will look to take them out quickly after getting tested in the first half of its last two games. Arkansas has shot poorly in its last four games but the Razorbacks won’t escape the consequences against a great team. Look for the BEars to get the cover Monday.

No. 3 Arkansas vs. No. 1 Baylor from South Region. In my overall Monday Elite Eight preview for SportsLine, I picked the Bears at -7 and I'm not going to change now -- although if this got to 8.5, I would back Arkansas. And it might. My primary concern with the Hogs is that they have not been shooting it well from deep in the Big Dance and have been rather lucky (sometimes it's better to be lucky than good) in winning their past two games. Other than one half vs. Villanova, Baylor has looked dominant in this tournament.

I would jump on this number as quickly as you can because I think it will close at -8 or -8.5 for Baylor. My simulations make the Bears -9.3 in this tournament format. Arkansas tries to play at a very quick pace, but they're outside of the top 50 in terms of offensive efficiency, and they've relied on their defense to barely get them to this point in the tournament. Baylor is the second best offensive, and a top 12 defense in my model ratings. The guard play will be the difference for the Bears who will try to make Arkansas beat them in half-court sets. Lay it.