No. 4 Florida State vs. No. 1 Michigan in East Region. I absolutely think Florida State can win this game and in fact on my bracket here on the site picked the Noles to do so. However, from a betting perspective I can't not take U-M here giving only two points. Basically, I think FSU wins or gets routed and there's no in between because the Seminoles, while great on defense, can't shoot.

Florida State’s ability to play both ends of the floor has been uncanny compared to the rest of the field in March Madness. They limited both UNC Greensboro and Colorado to under 36 percent shooting. It’s been a solid campaign from Juwon Howard and Michigan but look for the Seminoles to continue to hinder their opponent and advance to the Elite 8.

All I’ve been hearing about from experts is how Michigan can’t win without Isaiah Livers, but the Wolverines are doing it and holding opponents to 39 percent shooting (FSU allows 40 percent). Michigan has had role players take on more responsibility and it’s working to fill the void. FSU beat a Colorado squad that was deflated and mourning from the shooting in Boulder. Michigan gets the cover.

Michigan certainly feels the impact of not having Isaiah Livers on the floor, but they're still a very good defensive team that is now undervalued. The Big Ten struggles combined with Florida State's impressive win over Colorado has created a nice value spot for the Wolverines. My simulations make this number -4.7 thanks to Michigan's strength on the defensive end of the floor. Hunter Dickinson avoiding early foul trouble will be key, but Michigan should be fine against a Florida State team that ranks outside of the top 25 in terms of defensive efficiency. Lay it.