No. 5 Villanova vs. No. 1 Baylor in South Region. I'll admit that I am completely on the fence about this one -- and thought Villanova would be upset by No. 12 Winthrop on Round 1. However, it's such a well-coached team and the Cats, while at a major disadvantage in the backcourt without the injured Collin Gillespie, will have a major frontcourt advantage. That will be enough to cover. Baylor is 0-4 ATS in its past four after a cover.

In the past eight seasons, Villanova has been an underdog by today’s margin only one other time. That speaks to the incredible run of Jay Wright and his staff. Baylor’s elite level of play began in November 2019, when they defeated Villanova 87-78. In the contest Baylor shot 57.9 percent from 3-point range, got several Villanova players in foul trouble and committed just five turnovers. The in-game adjustments of Jay Wright won’t be there to keep Baylor at bay. Take Baylor.

Villanova's main strength throughout the year has been its offense. The Wildcats do play a slower pace, however, they are an underdog and my feeling is that Villanova will be trailing in much of this game. The Wildcats will have to play with a great sense of urgency. Villanova has not been an underdog all year long. The Bears push the pace and play pressure defense. Baylor is third best in the nation in offensive efficiency and the Bears are the No. 1 three-point shooting team in the country. Baylor is 6-1 to the over in its last seven games.

Wish I'd jumped on this sooner, but I'll still back Baylor now that the Bears are back to their pre-COVID form. Villanova isn't likely to shoot 16 of 26 from deep like the Wildcats did versus North Texas. Baylor is getting contributions up and down the lineup, including from 6-9 reserve Matthew Mayer (17 points versus Wisconsin). The Bears were more dominant against the Badgers than the final score indicated. Lay the points. (Both teams are nicknamed Bulldogs -- who doesn't love Bulldogs?)

Baylor leads the nation in 3-point shooting at 42.9 percent and defending that will be a hard task for Villanova. However, I’m impressed with what Villanova coach Jay Wright has done after experiencing two immediate losses after leader Collin Gillespie suffered a season-ending injury. Wright has changed their offensive attack, putting more responsibility on his best players and they’ve responded well. Take the better coach and the points with Villanova.