Penn State already has valuable experience at Madison Square Garden, and has shown it can excel amid the bright lights. The Lions were impressive in three Big 10 Tournament games there, winning two and giving Purdue a valiant fight in the semifinals. Now, they have the look of a team determined to make the most of their berth in the NIT semifinals. Moreover, sophomores Lamar Stevens and Tony Carr look like the building blocks for s standout team the next couple of seasons. Penn State's consistent execution on offense should be the difference.

Both these teams come in hot, with Mississippi State going 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 and Penn State winning and covering five of its last six. However, I've been a little more impressed with what the Bulldogs have been doing in the last five, shooting 47 percent and holding opponents to 40 percent. Penn State is shooting only 40 percent over its last five. Take the points in this NIT semifinal Tuesday.

Digging deeper than usual for a pick is required for this NIT semifinal matchup between teams with similar profiles. While Madison Square Garden is a neutral-court setting, Penn State played in the building just three weeks ago in the Big Tournament tournament. I put some stock in the Nittay Lions’ superior road record -- 7-4, to Mississippi State’s 4-8. The Nittany Lions hold an edge in efficiency for offense (52nd ranking to M-State’s 75) and defense (19th to 31st), according to the Pomeroy Ratings. And, given the proximity to Penn State’s campus, the Lions figure to have far more crowd support than the Bulldogs.

Both teams are very talented on the defensive end and both teams will work for a good shot on the offensive end. Mississippi State ranks 214th in terms of pace and Penn State is 212th. Penn State hasn't played a game over 70 possessions since Jan. 31 -- a span of 13 games. Penn State's last three games against comparable teams were Temple, Northwestern and Illinois. Those games resulted in 120, 122 and 126 points. Mississippi State has played over 70 possessions just once, not counting overtimes, in their last 14 games. The Bulldogs are on a 6-2 run to the Under. This is a big game for both programs so I expect a lot of defensive intensity. Go Under.