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Banker vs. player baccarat: Baccarat banker vs player odds
Comparing banker vs. player baccarat options, seeing which option has the lower house edge at online casinos. Learn the math behind baccarat banker vs. player odds.
When it comes to the banker vs. player baccarat decision and which to wager, many players assume these two bets are pretty equal. They are not. One of them has a 50.68% win probability, plus features a lower house edge—despite having a built-in commission. Understanding the difference is key to making the best bet in baccarat. Let's break down baccarat banker vs. player odds.
Online casinos where you can play banker vs. player baccarat
Quick glance at the 3 main baccarat bets
While some baccarat online variations have side bets, the three main wagers that are always available include:
- Banker – You're betting that the banker's hand will win. Pays 1:1, minus a 5% commission on wins. Ties result in a push.
- Player – You're betting the player's hand will win. Pays 1:1. Ties result in a push.
- Tie – You're wagering that both hands will tie. Pays either 8:1 or 9:1. Non-ties result in a loss.
All three bets offer compelling reasons to choose them. The player (no commission) and tie wager (big payouts) especially seem attractive. But the banker is actually the best bet in baccarat, even if it doesn't appear so on paper.
The math behind why the banker bet is king
The banker's hand wins at an impressive 50.68% rate on non-pushes. The player hand wins slightly less at 49.32%.
Based on win rates, the banker seems like the obvious choice in the banker vs player odds debate. But the 5% commission is what throws many players off.
So, why does Banker have an edge in baccarat, despite that extra fee?
Even with a 5% commission, the banker hand carries a lower house edge at 1.06%. The player's hand is close with a 1.24% house advantage, but still lags behind.
The following examples show why the banker is still the top choice:
You bet $100 total on the banker:
- 1:1 payout x 5% commission: 1 x 0.05 = 0.95
- So, every $100 in profits would actually be reduced to $95.
- 0.5068 win rate x 95 = $48.15 in winnings
- 0.4932 loss rate x 100 = $49.32 in losses
- 48.15 - 49.32 = –$1.17 in expected value per $100 wagered
You bet $100 total on the player:
- 0.4932 x 100 = $49.32 in winnings
- 0.5068 x 100 = $50.68 in losses
- 49.32 - 50.68 = –$1.36 in expected value per $100 wagered
It's already clear that the banker has the best baccarat odds even before we include ties/pushes. It would theoretically return an extra $0.19 for every $100 wagered compared to the player's hand.
How the banker and player house edges are determined
If we stopped here, the banker's hand would have a 1.17% house edge vs 1.36% for the player. That leaves the question of how we arrive at the previously mentioned 1.06% and 1.24% house advantages for these bets.
The probability of both hands tying is 9.52%, which shakes up win and loss rates for the banker and player. The following examples show how the house edge takes shape when accounting for the 9.52% tie probability:
Banker's hand:
- 0.4586 win rate x 0.95 = $43.567 in winnings
- 0.44.62 loss rate x 100 = $44.62 in losses
- 43.567 - 44.62 = –$1.06 in expected value per $100 wagered
Player hand:
- 0.4462 win rate x 100 = $44.62 in winnings
- 0.4586 loss rate x 100 = $45.86 in losses
- 44.62 - 45.86 = –$1.24 in expected value per $100 wagered
If you're just learning how to win at baccarat, stick with the banker since its house edge is 0.18% lower than the player.
Avoiding the tie trap, despite its large payouts
As far as casino games with best odds go, baccarat ranks right up there with blackjack, craps, and European roulette. But this certainly has nothing to do with the tie wager. In fact, the tie bet is among the worst wagers in all of casino gaming.Â
Here's a look at why using the non-rounded 9.516% tie rate:
You bet $100 total on ties:
- 8:1 payout x 100 = 800
- 0.09516 win rate x 800 = $76.12 in winnings
- 0.9048 loss rate x 100 = $90.48 in losses
- 78.12 - 90.48 = –$14.36 in expected losses per $100 wagered
That translates to a 14.36% house edge (often rounded to 14.4%). This is 13.26% and 13.08% higher than the banker and player bets, respectively.
You'll get paid 9:1 when playing at some live dealer baccarat and RNG-run tables. Let's see how this improves the math:
Same example with 9:1 payouts:
- 9:1 payout x 100 = 900
- 0.09516 win rate x 900 = $85.64 in winnings
- 0.9048 loss rate x 100 = $90.48 in losses
- 85.64 - 90.48 = –$4.84 in expected losses per $100 wagered
A 4.84% house edge isn't terrible in the overall scheme of casino games. However, it's still about 4x higher than what you'll face with the other two main bets.
Simple takeaway—stick with the banker
The banker's hand is the best bet in baccarat, plain and simple. The 5% commission is merely to prevent you from gaining an advantage over casinos. But even with this fee, you're still dealing with a low 1.06% house edge.
If you ever feel like deviating from the best baccarat betting strategy, the player hand isn't a bad second choice. Its 1.24% house advantage is still among the lowest in gaming.
Keep in mind that you can make the banker or player bet on nearly a dozen baccarat games at BetMGM Casino. You can also get up to $2,500 casino credits and 100 bonus spins when using the BetMGM prom code SPORTSLINE2500.
