Baccarat strategy: How to win baccarat, best bets, tips, systems, patterns

An effective baccarat strategy involves understanding the math behind the game, knowing the best bets, and properly managing your bankroll. I'll cover everything you need to know, including the number one bet, baccarat betting strategy, bankroll management, and which legal US casinos to choose in MI, PA, NJ, and WV.

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Baccarat strategy is about knowing which bets work and which ones should be avoided. Unlike online blackjack, it doesn't require a complex set of decisions that vary from one hand to the next. Instead, you just need to know which wager has the lowest baccarat house edge.

Here's a look at the three main bets:

No matter how you slice it, the best baccarat strategy is pretty simple: put your money on the banker and let Lady Luck do the rest. 

You'll enjoy the lowest house edge with the banker hand at 1.06%, or, if you prefer, the highest return to player (RTP) at 98.94%. This even accounts for the 5% commission casinos take from winning banker bets. 

After all, the banker has a 50.68% probability of beating the player (49.32% probability) when excluding ties/pushes. Casinos need these commissions to retain their edge on banker bets.

You might sometimes consider wagering on the player for variety's sake. After all, the player is pretty close to the banker in terms of house edge. But if you're looking for the simplest answer on how to win at baccarat, it's to repeatedly hammer the banker bet round after round.

Baccarat offers 98.94% RTP, which easily puts it among casino games with best odds. Even still, you want to realize it's a negative-expectation game that leads to losses in the long run.

If you were to place $1,000 wagers on each option, here are your average expected losses:

Losing $10.60 or $12.40 over $1k worth of wagers isn't bad in the overall scheme of gaming. I've played plenty of games, like American roulette and keno, that have much worse negative expected value. Nevertheless, you still need a little luck along with an optimal baccarat strategy to win money.

Many baccarat strategies have been devised to overcome the slim house advantage on either the banker or player side. Some of these are even intricate baccarat betting systems with complex methods of placing wagers. 

However, you can skip the complicated approach when trying to figure out how to win at baccarat. The only reliable way to boost your chances of success is to bet on the banker and avoid the tie. I've already thoroughly covered why the banker bet is important, so let me skip straight to railing against ties. 

Some players will see the large tie bet payout and ignore everything else. However, even with the optimal 9:1 payout (vs. 8:1), the tie wager carries an undesirable 4.85% house edge. 

Sure, that's still better than a game like American roulette (5.26%). But why bet on both hands tying when you could just take the banker or player and reduce the house advantage by roughly 4x?

A baccarat betting strategy is a fun way to spice up the game and potentially ride hot streaks to more winnings. But not all of these baccarat strategies are ideal from a risk standpoint. Let's go over four popular systems and cover which ones you should actually consider trying.

If you're fairly new to the game, then flat betting is for you. It involves placing the same bet size hand after hand. Assuming you're comfortable with $5 stakes, for example, you'd simply risk $5 on every hand.

Unlike more involved systems like progressive betting, flat betting doesn't require any advanced strategy knowledge. You can use it even if you're just starting to learn how to play baccarat. Flat betting is also a safe strategy since it doesn't push you to take on added risk by increasing bets (positive progression) or decreasing them (negative progression).

This system requires doubling your bet following every loss. The idea is to recoup losses from the previous hand and end up with a small profit each time. You always start with the table's minimum bet in an attempt to avoid reaching the betting limit during long losing streaks.

Here's an example of using the Martingale in baccarat:

Despite winning just one out of four hands, you've ended up with a profit in this situation. That's what makes the Martingale so attractive. No matter how many losing baccarat patterns you go through, you can wipe the slate clean and earn a small profit each time.

But there are two serious downsides to this system:

Even if you have a $10,000 bankroll and make $1 bets, for example, this baccarat betting system is highly risky. You'd reach $8,192 in losses after 13 consecutive losing banker hands—effectively ensuring you can't double on the next bet. Many online baccarat tables don't even allow you to bet up to $8,192 anyways.

Losing 13 consecutive hands happens about once every 10,000 hands on average. That's entirely possible over time if you play lots of baccarat.

The Paroli is basically the opposite of the Martingale. It involves doubling hands after every win. Seeing as how you might want to bank a profit at some point, this baccarat strategy has you start the sequence over after three straight wins.

Here's an example of the Paroli in action:

The goal behind this online baccarat strategy is to capitalize on hot streaks. It's not as risky as the Martingale because you're only progressing bets while you're winning—not taking on added risk during a losing streak.

The Paroli's main drawback is that you'll lose before reaching three straight wins more times than not. It can be frustrating to win 1–2 hands and not actually collect any profit when you lose that all-important third hand. Still, I favor this baccarat strategy over the Martingale due to its lower risk factor.

The Labouchere starts with setting a target profit goal for your baccarat session in terms of units. You then come up with a sequence of units that add up to your goal and dictate your bet sizes. The first and last numbers of the number string are added to determine your next bet. 

Following every win, you'll "cancel" (i.e., mark off) the first and last number of your sequence. After a loss, you add the losing bet to the end. The goal is to cancel every number, clear the sequence, and end the session with your desired profit.

Here's an example of how this baccarat betting strategy works:

Much like with the Martingale, it's wise to stick with the table's minimum bet. After all, those combined betting units add up quickly during downswings.

That's much of the Labouchere's risk because it can accelerate losses. However, I personally prefer this baccarat strategy over the Martingale and Paroli. 

It's not as demanding on my bankroll as the Martingale during losing streaks. Meanwhile, I can quit a session after reaching my target goal. By comparison, the Paroli system doesn't have a clear objective other than starting over after three consecutive wins.

Baccarat is a simple casino game with a low house edge. But without a disciplined approach to bankroll management, not even the reasonable baccarat odds can protect your gambling funds. That said, let's discuss multiple aspects of how to properly manage your money at online tables.

Before placing a single bet, decide how much you're willing to risk for an upcoming session. This will be your session bankroll, a chunk of your overall bankroll that you're willing to potentially lose.

Here's an example:

By creating a separate mini bankroll, you're essentially deciding session loss limits. If you lose $50 in the example above, you've still got another $350 to play with later.

A tried-and-true bankroll management method in sports betting is to never risk more than 1-2% of your bankroll on a single bet. I find that this rule works really well when applied to baccarat strategy too.

If you have a $300 bankroll, for example, the betting unit size would range between $3 (1%) and $6 (2%). 

The key is to never go beyond $6, even during the hottest of hot streaks. This keeps you from getting carried away with emotions and sizing bets too large, which can put you out of the game quicker.

A win limit creates a goal and a predetermined stopping point for banking profits. It's down to your personal preference on what this goal should be, but I like setting limits anywhere from 5%–20% of my bankroll.

Here's an example:

Baccarat is a good game if your variance tolerance is low. Its low house edge combined with high winning probabilities for the banker and player bet helps minimize short-term losses during losing streaks.

Even with that being said, not every baccarat session is smooth sailing. Sometimes you'll go through rough patches where you barely win any hands over a sample size of dozens of rounds. 

This is where it pays to understand that the low baccarat house edge doesn't always help in the short run. It's also helpful if you follow the baccarat bankroll strategies we've discussed, so the variance doesn't affect you as much.

Of course, volatility can also go in your favor in the form of hot runs. There's nothing wrong with increasing bets to ride dream sessions, but also realize that the variance will eventually go the other way. So, don't go crazy with wager sizes just because the results are currently favoring you.

Card counting has a certain mystique thanks to the MIT Blackjack Team and other legends who made money through this advantage-play method. But that's blackjack. How well does counting cards translate to baccarat?

Unfortunately, baccarat card counting doesn't offer quite the same edge as it can in blackjack. While you can cut down the house edge by around 25–30% through counting, you're putting in a lot of work for what's still negative expected value.

So, why isn't card counting as effective in baccarat as in blackjack, where your edge can theoretically be 0.5% to 1.5%? The key difference lies in the blackjack and baccarat rules. 

In blackjack, you have more freedom with decisions as the deck composition changes based on more high (good) or low cards (bad) remaining. You can hit, stand, double down, or split, with the latter two actions having more impact during favorable counts (i.e., more high cards than low cards left in the deck).

You're also rewarded more for bigger bets during a high blackjack count because you're more likely to be dealt a natural (21 on the first two cards). Naturals pay 3:2 at most tables instead of 1:1 for regular wins.

Baccarat doesn't provide as much room for decision-making. You're either betting on the banker, player, or tie, and the drawing rules are fixed. Also, knowing if there are more high or low cards in the deck doesn't impact the banker or player probabilities enough to make much difference.

A natural win (score of 8 or 9) doesn't pay off as it does in blackjack either. If you bet on the banker and get a natural win, you're still only paid at 1:1, minus the 5% commission.

In short, you can act on info gained when counting cards in blackjack through a combo of larger bets and dynamic decisions. The info gained through baccarat card counting isn't really that valuable.

Baccarat strategy is among the most straightforward in the casino: bet on the banker and reap that sweet 98.94% RTP. However, casinos do a good job of tempting you with baccarat side bets promising big payouts. 

Let's get into three of the most popular side bets—Player Pair, Banker Pair, and Dragon Bonus—and discuss why you should avoid most of them.

These baccarat side bets involve wagering on whether the banker or player will form a pair on their first two cards. Suits don't matter, only rank.

Here are examples to show how these wagers work:

Both bets pay 11:1, which is why they're attractive. However, they both carry a 10.3% house edge because each has just a 7.47% probability of receiving a pair on the opening two cards. I highly recommend staying away from these two at all costs.

This bet is also on the player or banker. You can win through two possible avenues:

Payouts increase as the winning margin increases, ranging from 1:1 (natural win) to 30:1 (win by a margin of 8-9). That 30:1 payout is the kicker and what draws many players.

As the Dragon Bonus house edge shows, you're actually not too bad off when taking the player side:

This is actually one of the best baccarat side bets if you stick with the player. Therefore, you might consider it if you have a high variance tolerance and like chasing bigger payouts. Just be aware that Player Dragon Bonus still carries twice the house advantage as regular player or banker bets.

This game essentially has the same core rules whether you play online or in a Las Vegas casino. However, the environment around each setting changes how you should approach baccarat strategy in each case. Let's look at how RTP transparency, minimum stakes, and practicing the game differ at Vegas and online casinos.

You can quickly access RTP percentages through online baccarat info screens. This way, there's no mystery about your odds of winning. 

Vegas casinos generally have the same baccarat RTP for each main bet, but you can't quickly verify this info. You could also sit down at a table with rule variations (e.g., no commissions) and not realize it, leading you to using incorrect baccarat strategies.

You can test online baccarat strategy and have fun at little cost. Most online casinos only require a $1 minimum bet, which isn't much when considering the tiny 1.06% banker bet house edge.

Vegas Strip baccarat games often require $25–$100 bets, essentially making them high stakes if you're used to the online version. Even the off-Strip and downtown games often require $5–$25 minimum wagers.

You don't have to spend anything to play baccarat online. Most legal and regulated US casino apps let you play free demos after registering for an account. Whether you want to try the Paroli system, track baccarat patterns, or test any other new strategy, you can do so with zero risk.

There's no such thing as a free game in Vegas. Some casinos might run promotional events where you can briefly try baccarat and other games under the guidance of dealers. But these rare opportunities are as close as it gets to free online demos.

Legal US online casinos offer welcome promos to entice you into joining. For example, Play Gun Lake Michigan offers up to $1,000 in lossback casino credits and 250 bonus spins when you sign up with code SLINECAS. 

These bonuses are important because they essentially lower your cost per session. In the case of Play Gun Lake's bonus, you get a refund on losses occurring within your first 24 hours of play. So, you're essentially playing that first day with lossback insurance.

Vegas casinos offer player rewards and comps, but these don't have the immediate impact that online baccarat bonuses do.

You can see my picks for the best online casinos to play baccarat at below. Available in New Jersey, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and/or West Virginia, these regulated casino apps each excel in a certain area.

FanDuel features the right combination of variety and wide betting limits. Some of its baccarat variations include low stakes, First Person, Ruyi, Speed (live), and EZ (live). Bets run anywhere from a $0.20 minimum for certain RNG-based games to a $15,000 max on live tables. 

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BetMGM has one of the best live dealer online casinos in the industry, so it's no surprise that it also provides a quality live baccarat experience. It features four different live variants, including regular, BetMGM-branded, side bet, and Baccarat Speed. I really like the studio atmospheres and dealers on the branded tables.

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Although best known for its sports betting, bet365 also has a solid collection of baccarat games. I recommend the three RNG-run variations if you're learning how to play baccarat. The First Person variant from Evolution offers realistic graphics to admire when you study the baccarat rules.

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DraftKings could have fit 1–2 other categories among my best baccarat online casinos, but I especially like it for demos. The reason is that DraftKings doesn't even require an account to try baccarat games here. Just find a non-live-dealer game, click "Demo," and start playing.

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The standard baccarat strategy boils down to betting on the banker every time. But there are situations where the basics don't always apply, which is when advanced baccarat strategies come into play.

As the name implies, the casino doesn't take a 5% commission out of wins. This might lead you to believe that the banker bet advantage would increase, but that's not the case.

Casinos counteract the lack of commissions by only paying half on banker wins with a 6-point total. Although a seemingly marginal difference, this rule increases the banker bet house edge to 1.46%. Therefore, the optimal bet at no-commission tables is the player and its 1.24% house advantage. 

I'd recommend avoiding commission-free tables altogether. But if you ever find yourself stuck at one, go with the player hand.

This advice has less to do with what bets you're making and instead knowing how to handle taxes for big baccarat wins. There's some confusion here because current reporting standards for a gambling W2-G form fall into two categories:

Baccarat doesn't fall into either of these categories like some online casino games do. Therefore, you're unlikely to trigger a W2-G being sent to you and the IRS by playing baccarat. 

But you are supposed to report winnings to the IRS, which, in this case, would be a profitable overall year. For example, if you logged all your baccarat wins and losses and came out ahead $1,000, you'd add this as income while doing taxes.

Bettors must be 21 years or older and otherwise eligible to register and place wagers at online casinos. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, please seek assistance from trained professionals such as the Problem Gambling Help Network. Call or text 1-800-MY-RESET.

The best baccarat strategy is to wager on the banker hand every round. The banker has the lowest house edge among any baccarat bet at 1.06%. You should combine banker bets with a smart bankroll strategy to preserve your gambling funds longer. 

Anybody who's still learning how to win at baccarat should focus on the banker hand. The banker bet achieves the game's optimal 98.94% RTP (i.e., 1.06% house edge). Beginners also need to determine session bankrolls and be conservative with bet sizes to make funds last longer.

The baccarat Martingale strategy can work over a limited sample size. After all, it's effective at returning your losses plus a small profit after each sequence. But the problem is that you'll eventually hit the table limits or lose your bankroll during a lengthy downswing.

Baccarat card counting doesn't work at online casinos because the shoe is shuffled too frequently. Therefore, you can't track baccarat patterns involving shuffles. Of course, card counting barely reduces the house edge in land-based casinos. I'd recommend not wasting time counting cards for baccarat in live or online settings.

You're supposed to report gambling winnings of any kind. If you win $2,000 in online baccarat profits throughout the year, for example, you'd report this as extra income. However, baccarat doesn't typically qualify for W2-G form reporting standards, where online casinos send the IRS a form when a $2,000+ jackpot (previously $1,200) is hit. The W2-G situation applies to slots, bingo, keno, and potentially certain table game jackpots.

You should avoid most baccarat side bets due to their high house edges. Player Pair is a perfect example of what to avoid because it carries a 10.3% house advantage. The Player Dragon Bonus is a decent side bet worth considering because it only has a 2.65% house edge and offers payouts up to 30:1.

Yes, baccarat strategies work the same on your phone as they do in land-based or online/desktop casinos. In fact, you can play free demos through your phone to work on a new baccarat strategy. For example, you might want to test out progressive betting or flat betting to measure their results.

Michigan, West Virginia, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania currently offer legal, regulated markets where you can play online baccarat. You can sign up for casino apps licensed in these states anywhere in the country. However, you must be located within the state's respective borders that is hosting the relevant online baccarat game before depositing and placing bets.

You can practice baccarat strategy for free through online casino demos. Many legal casino apps in West Virginia, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Michigan offer demos that let you try games for free. Even if you play for real money, online baccarat games only require a $1 minimum bet or less.

The banker has a 1.06% house edge compared to 1.24% for the player. That 1.06% house edge even accounts for a 5% commission taken from banker wins. Another difference is that the banker wins 50.68% of the time versus the player bet probability of 49.32%. The two are similar in that scoring and third card draw rules still apply to both.

Jeremy Olson