The weather and the QB starters mean this is probably going to be an ugly game, but it's one the Dolphins have to win to stay alive in the playoff race. That means that the team has to feed its best running back as much as possible and not worry about workload concerns, which were part of the reason Achane failed to hit 50 rushing yards in four straight games before breaking out for 120 last week on 17 carries. I see him getting at least that much work here, and with the Browns giving up 4.5 yards per carry on the season, this is a good matchup for laddering Achane up to 100 yards as well.

The Browns have actually done a good job defending running backs catching passes. De'Von Achane has stayed Under this number in games Tyler Huntley has played. While Achane could be a big factor as a rusher, I'm fading him as a receiver in the inclement weather Sunday.

We hate to remind Dolphins fans, but in the four games that Tua Tagovailoa missed earlier this season, Miami scored a whopping 40 points behind Skylar Thompson, Tim Boyle, and Tyler Huntley; Huntley, who likely gets the start on Sunday as Tua nurses a sore hip, passed for only 1 TD across the three games he started. The Dolphins would have been under in each of those four games, too, had it not been for a very odd sequence at the end of the September 30 loss to the Titans. As for Cleveland, the Brownies have scored just 27 points across the past three weeks (all unders) as the offense moves very slowly with Dorian Thompson-Robinson taking snaps; DTR remains the starter. Play Dolphins-Browns Under

NFL totals do not get much lower than here. In this instance, it's valid. The QB matchup is likely Tyler Huntley (Miami) versus Dorian Thompson-Robinson (Cleveland). In his three appearances this season, the Dolphins have scored 12, 15 and 10 points. The Browns have tallied 14, seven and six in its last three outings, with Thompson-Robinson starting in the latest. Neither owns the credentials to become a regular NFL starter. The depleted Browns are minus TE David Njoku, WR Cedric Tillman and RB Nick Chubb. The predicted weather -- rain and high winds -- raises the hurdle even higher for these harried offenses.

Without Nick Chubb and competent QB play, this Browns' offense looks lost. They just mustered six points against a bad Cincinnati defense. a week after scoring seven at home vs. Kansas City. The Dolphins have won five of seven and are expected to get Jaylen Waddle back. It won't be especially cold in Cleveland (43 degrees).

The Browns offense has been MIA the last few weeks, scoring just one TD in each of the last two weeks. The entire attack comes down to hoping Jerome Ford breaks a long run and Dorian Thompson-Robinson scrambles enough to get into scoring range, and I don't know how we can expect multiple TDs from Cleveland at this point. Their kicking game has been abysmal as well, and potential rain in the forecast could make kicking even more difficult.

It's not going to be nearly as cold as usual for The Land after Christmas, but a high of 50 and persistent rain is enough to keep Miami under 20 points vs a decent D. Browns will get after Tua. Miami is 6-1 under on the road, averaging 36 total points. Browns home games average 40 points but with DTR at QB they ain't scoring on anyone. Fins last 3 road games they scored 12, 17 and 23 points. Browns have scored 27 points in their last 3 games. Yuck.