Maybe some commodity traders find investing in the Gardner Minshew-at-QB Colts to be a reasonable risk, but we might rather stick to soy beans and cattle futures. Minshew has definitely been a walk on the wild side for Indy since the injury to Anthony Richardson, tossing s many picks (5) as TDP across the last three games, and adding in a couple of fumbles for good measure. Further concern is a secondary that is getting torched repeatedly, although there is a question if Bryce Young is ready to do that for the Panthers at this stage of his career. But Young might slowly be getting the hang of the NFL after last week's win vs. the Texans.

Veteran wideout Adam Thielen has been targeted 59 times over the past five games, surpassing 100 yards three times. Thielen has been targeted 70 times this season, with the next closest Panther drawing 34 targets. He is facing a depleted Colts secondary that has been shredded three straight weeks.

I understand the time share split with Zack Moss to an extent, but this line for Taylor seems quite low against a poor Carolina rush defense. He's gone from 18 to 19 to 75 to 95 yards rushing in his four games this season as his snap share continues to increase. On the season, 5 RBs have gotten 15+ carries vs CAR, averaging 98.2 yards. Having received 30 carries combined in the last two games, I expect a BIG game out of the Colts franchise running back and would not be surprised to see him easily top the 100 yard rushing mark.

Moss has been outstanding in the Colts backfield, averaging 101.2 combined rushing and receiving yards, and has scored six touchdowns in seven games. Moss was functioning as the team's lead back after Jonathan Taylor started the season on the PUP list.

Moss and Taylor have appeared in four games together, and Moss has eclipsed this number in all four appearances. This is an outstanding matchup on paper against a Panthers defense that ranks in the bottom five in nearly every defensive rushing metric. Carolina is surrendering 156 combined rushing and receiving yards to opposing running backs. Both Taylor and Moss should have no shortage of opportunities, and considering this number is close to half of Taylor's combo line, I much prefer the discount we're getting.

I'm betting on the revenge spot for Frank Reich, but not how you'd think. Carolina’s offensive has moved better under Thomas Brown as their OC and I think the team will be motivated by revenge similarly to the Jets with Nathanial Hackett against the Broncos. For Indy, their game totals have gone way over 43.5 in each of their last 3 games with Minshew at QB. Look for there to be some surprising offensive fireworks in this one, I like the over.

The Panthers offense managed just 3.7 yards per play against Houston, but I think they took a step forward regardless. Bryce Young had his best yards per attempt and QB rating of the year, and the ability to go downfield should benefit him in a matchup with a Colts defense that just gave up 11.5 yards per attempt to Derek Carr at home. Young's passing stats are already trending up after posting less than 300 yards in his first two games combined, and I feel his best days are ahead.

The Frank Reich Revenge Game. Indy has allowed at least 37 points in three straight. QB Bryce Young looked pretty good out of the bye last week for the Cats, who have topped this number in only three games but that trio was against a lot better defenses than this one. The SL Model has Carolina with 25 points (and winning).

He has cruised over this number in each of the last two weeks, getting his legs under him, despite wild games having to chase points. Looked like himself with 95 on 12 carries and gets to face a terrible run defense that is 28th in yards per carry and that’s already allowed 14 rushing TDs. Colts ran for 6.8/carry as a team last week and they aren’t paying him all this money to be a second fiddle to Zach Moss. The transition is happening. They are just two weeks removed from a 40-carry game as a team. Offensive line built to run block.

Bryce Young and Panthers offense looking better with new play caller and bonkers stuff happens when Garnder Minshew starts football games. Last three Colts games have produced 199 points and their games have gone over 50 points in 6 of 8. 2 of last 3 Panthers games have gone over 60. Colts allow 28.6 PPG, dead last; Panthers at 28.4, Panthers are 31st in RZ defense and Colts are 24th. Panthers run D is broken and has allowed 14 rushing TDs and the Colts have already scored 12 and that’s with Jonathan Taylor just getting going. Colts allow 15 rushing TDs. I see explosive runs for both teams. Colts have gone over in 8 of 10 and Panthers offense better equipped now to keep pace.

Frank Reich's revenge game against the team that released him last season. Carolina's Bryce Young played very well, with a season-best 103.6 passer rating and an average of 7.6 yards per attempt in defeating Houston on a field goal as time expired. Young is expected to continue playing well against the Colts’ defense, which ranks 25th in passing yards allowed (247.3) and allows the most points per game in the NFL (28.6). The Carolina Panthers have an underrated defense, ranking eighth in third-down defense. With Thomas Brown now calling the plays, Carolina should continue improving in their second consecutive home game following another week of practice. This will be the Colts’ second game outdoors in over a month and ninth straight without a break.

This is obviously a huge game for Frank Reich, facing the team that fired him midseason despite a 40-33 record and two playoff appearances. Under new playcaller Thomas Brown, Bryce Young posted a season-best 103.6 passer rating and averaged a season-high 7.6 yards per attempt in Carolina's 15-13 win over Houston. Young should have success against a banged-up Indy defense that's given up an NFL-high 28.6 points per game and ranks 25th in passing yards allowed (247.3). Indy has given up 37, 39 and 38 points the last three weeks. The Colts' strong running game is a big concern, but I'll bank on Gardner Minshew's tendency to make mistakes. He's committed nine turnovers (5 INTs, 4 lost fumbles) in the past three games alone.

Carolina was somewhat lucky to cover last week, as on the surface the offense didn't look any better at 3.7 yards per play. But that was a failure of the run game and O-line, as Bryce Young had his best yards per attempt and QB rating to date. He now gets an Indy defense that just got torched by Derek Carr for 7.7 yards per play. The Panthers defense stood tall against a good Houston passing attack, and they're a surprisingly good eighth in third down success rate. Gardner Minshew is someone we should look to fade laying points, especially on the road, and I'm still buying this Panthers offense improving.

The Colts have lost four consecutive games and it's been one disappointing loss after another but they can't ask for a better spot against a bad Panthers team. I think the Colts really matchup well against Carolina, particularly their run game against the Panther's putrid run defense. Zack Moss and Jonathan Taylor are both playing very well at the moment and are facing a Carolina run defense that is dead last in nearly every defensive rushing metric. If Shane Steichen can limit Gardner Minshew from making mistakes and lean heavily on their dominant ground game, I think Indy does not enough to get the win and end their losing streak.