Told myself that I would throw a half unit down if this dipped back under -200 even with Derek Carr active. Surprised it did drop. Alvin Kamara (back from suspension) makes such a huge difference in that New Orleans offense. Short week for the Bucs, who are down top corner Jamel Dean. Fellow CB Carlton Davis is not 100%.

How about Baker Mayfield? The well-traveled QB has begun his stint with Tampa Bay by largely avoiding interceptions (one) and sacks (three). The Saints welcome back RB Alvin Kamara from suspension, but he apparently won't be accepting handoffs from Derek Carr. Ex-Buc Jameis Winston likely gets the call, and any team he starts on should not be yielding more than a field goal. This matchup figures to be low-scoring, so the hook is meaningful.

The Bucs were humbled on national TV on Monday, but this is more of their weight class. Even if Derek Carr (shoulder) plays, he won't be 100 percent. Dennis Allen is a conservative coach who will be happy winning 20-17 as opposed to taking chances, especially if Jameis Winston is his quarterback. Grab the points.

When asked about the Bucs run game after their Monday night loss, coach Todd Bowles said "we didn't have one." Six days later, he still might not have one. The Saints have given up just 3.9 yards per carry but ranked sixth-best in rushes of five plus yards allowed, and they've held enemy running backs to 1.34 yards before contact per rush, an example of just how good their defensive line is. That brings us to White, who according to Next Gen Stats, has totaled negative-65 rushing yards over expected so far this season. That sounds bad. White has only been over 40 rushing yards once this season, at Chicago, and is averaging 3.1 yards per carry with 0.81 yards before contact over 48 runs.

The Mike Evans-Marshon Lattimore WR-CB rivalry is easily the most heated in the NFL. The only time they faced off in 2022, a bench clearing brawl ensued and both players were ejected. Evans has been held under 50 yards in three of his last four games against Lattimore and for his career, he's only caught 14 of the 29 targets when the Saints CB was the closest defender. Expect a quiet day on Sunday from Tampa's top WR.

DraftKings is the only SL book still with 40 so guess we will grab it as NO likely will be without Derek Carr. The Bucs are on a short week and their offense was exposed by a good Philly defense on Monday night. Alvin Kamara is back for the Saints from suspension. The SL Model has 34 points scored. Half unit simply so far out but it sure feels like a 20-17 game.

The Saints offense struggled last week even before Derek Carr's injury, though it was helped by a punt return TD. While Jameis Winston is a high-end backup, the loss of Carr is still a notable downgrade for the New Orleans offense. The Saints defense looks good on paper but has faced a trio of limited or banged-up offenses, and the Bucs appear to be their toughest matchup to date. I love what Dave Canales has done with the Tampa Bay offense to exceed expectations thus far, and the Bucs have a great shot at winning this game. I'm grabbing the 3 now as a competitive game with Philly on Monday night should move the line significantly.