The Colts were trounced by Tennessee last week but should have some key players back on defense. The Texans have won two straight and three of four but will be without WR Will Fuller and CB Bradley Roby, who both were suspended six games for PED violations. Expect the Colts' fifth-ranked defense to control things en route to the team's third straight road victory.

Houston's defense ranks 30th in the NFL in yards allowed per play at 6.2 and 25th in DVOA. Last week, it held Detroit to just 5.1 yards per play, but it yielded 5.7 or more in each of the previous five games. Houston QB Deshaun Watson leads an offense that's ranked 11th in DVOA and has scored 27 or more points in five of the last seven contests. Indianapolis is 6-1 over its last seven games, and its offense has scored at least 30 points in four of the past six.

The Colts will enter this game motivated after last week's tough home loss to the Titans and as successful road favorites as of late covering three of their last four such scenarios. I'd love this line at 2.5, but with it back at 3 down from the hook, I'm ready to pounce. Divisional matchups are always tough in the NFL, but the Colts have nearly their full complement of players and a coaching advantage where the Texans just lost their most explosive receiver and one of their top defensive backs. Houston is a sieve on the ground, and Indianapolis is going to take advantage of that. All of this is not to mention the Colts' superior defense. The Texans do not have a win against a quality opponent this season, unless you count the downtrodden Pats, and I don't think they get their first today.

The lookahead line for this game (Colts -3) hasn't budged in weeks. Odd, since the Colts get superstar DeForest Buckner and sack leader Denico Autry back off the COVID list, while the Texans' top WR (Will Fuller) and interceptions leader (Bradley Roby) have been lost to PED suspensions. Maybe the Colts coming off a loss and the Texans coming off a win kept the spread at 3, or maybe it's because Anthony Castonzo will be out. But Indy owns this rivalry (28-9 all-time), and they've got a big coaching advantage here to go with their boost on D. Lay the points.

I expect this total is in the 50s because the Colts just got blasted by the Titans offense, but it's important to put that game in context: DeForest Buckner and Denico Autry were lost to the COVID-19 list late in the week, putting the defense in a big hole. Both are back now and getting to face a Houston offense that just lost its best receiver in Will Fuller to a suspension. The Colts offense will have to try to overcome the absence of left tackle Anthony Castonzo as well, and I can see them failing to throw up a ton of points against a Houston defense that has held teams in the 20s over the last month.

Houston is frankly playing much better than Indianapolis right now yet getting 3.5 points at home? Sure, the Texans lost Will Fuller and Bradley Roby to suspension earlier this week, but Deshaun Watson is playing out of his mind. He hasn't thrown a pick in six straight games -- and the Texans are on extra rest off their Turkey Day cooking of the Lions. Indy's defense has been shredded in back-to-back losses, and that unit could again be without Pro Bowl defensive tackle DeForest Buckner. It sounds as if starting left tackle Anthony Castonzo will miss the game with an injury. The Texans may win outright and I'd be shocked if they lost by more than 3.

The Texans won't have Will Fuller or Bradley Roby due to suspensions. Indianapolis will rebound from last week's loss to Tennessee, as T.Y. Hilton and Nyheim Hines will torch Houston's secondary. The Colts need this game and they'll play like it.

Nothing like the suspension of two of your most productive players for PED use to dampen a nice run. Texans QB Deshaun Watson, who has adjusted to the departure of super-hero DeAndre Hopkins, now will be missing WR Will Fuller, a touchdown machine. Houston's defense must fill a gaping hole left by capable CB Bradley Roby's ban. The Texans do not fare well against Indianpolis in better circumstances, with three ATS wins and five straight-up in the last 14 meetings.