I'm trying to head off any major slumps by being pretty frugal with my picks the day after a losing MLB slate. Saturday was one of those, although we can blame that on the Yankees and Blue Jays bullpens blowing late leads. That Toronto one just killed. So probably just the one MLB play today unless someone major is ruled out. We have cashed the Sox in the first two games of this series and today's starting pitching matchup looks very lopsided toward Boston with Garrett Crochet (2.05 ERA) opposed by Chris Paddack (0-3, 5.60 ERA). Sox stellar rookie second baseman Kristian Campbell is back in the lineup. End of a long trip for the Twins with no days off ... -1 works too.

Garrett Crochet has only stayed under this line twice since the start of April, both times against a Toronto lineup that ranks near MLB best at avoiding strikeouts, with a rate under 20%. Still, Crochet finished just under this line in those starts and against one of the higher strikeout lineups when facing southpaws, Crochet is firmly in position to succeed with strikeouts today. I think there is even some room for positive regression with his swinging strike rate (12.6% vs. 16% in 2024), considering he is at 112 Stuff+ with nearly all of his pitches ranking as well above average. He will need to work quickly to avoid the rain but it looks like it holds off just long enough.

The Twins have a strikeout rate of 21.5% as a team but that number jumps to 26.9% against lefties, which is the third-highest rate in the league. Enter Garret Crochet, who is capble of striking out anybody.

FanDuel (1.2 betting units for me). Garrett Crochet has cleared this strikeout line in four of his seven starts this season, with two of those misses against the Blue Jays, who have the sixth lowest strikeout rate against lefties. Today’s matchup, the Twins, have the third highest strikeout rate against lefties thus far (26.9%), with a measly .613 OPS against southpaws. There are some minor weather concerns, but it does look like we should avoid any in-game delays.

Getting a little greedy here with the great Garrett Crochet on the mound vs a bad team running out a terrible starter of their own. Chris Paddack cannot get ground balls and has already allowed 6 HRs in 6 starts. This ballpark probably won't play well for him. Not expecting the Twinkies to do much damage. Twins .614 OPS vs lefties is 23rd in MLB and their 3 HRs vs lefties are second-fewest in MLB. Red Sox need to win this series. BOS is 3rd in MLB in OPS in innings 1-5.