The Mets got a 5-3 win in yesterday's matchup between Max Scherzer and Sandy Alcantara, so I like our chances of another high-scoring game with these southpaws. Jesus Luzardo really struggled at home last season, where he had a 4.25 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Admittedly, the Marlins are awful against left handed pitching, but they did win both games against David Peterson and the Mets last season. The over has hit in seven straight between these two teams. Consider taking the total tonight.

We already are on the Mets ML and now that this has gotten to 8, I'll take the plunge on the total even with the push possibility. As we mentioned in our side play, Mets lefty David Peterson was spectacular this spring and had a 2.50 ERA in 18 innings last year against the Marlins. Miami lefty Jesus Luzardo allowed two runs or fewer in 13 of 18 starts in 2022 and one run or fewer in seven of those.

This Marlins’ lineup is bad. They have Jazz Chisholm Jr., Luis Arraez….and that’s about it. They had the fourth-worst OPS in baseball last season, which resulted in them scoring the third-fewest runs. David Peterson will be starting for the Mets, and that’s significant because the Marlins had the worst OPS (.598) in baseball last season against left-handed pitchers. The next-worst team was the Athletics, and even they had some distance between themselves and the Marlins with their .636 OPS versus lefties. The Mets are in a favorable position to begin the season with a 2-0 record.

A good starting point is simply that the Mets are a much better team. Then there are the Marlins' woes against lefties last season, when they slashed .208/.273/.325 against left-handed pitching last season. The big offseason acquisition for the offense was Luis Arraez, but he's left-handed and hits righties far better than lefties. The Mets send southpaw David Peterson to the hill and he had a 1.46 ERA against the Marlins in two starts last year. The Marlins counter with Jesus Luzardo and the Mets shelled him last time they saw him in Miami. Luzardo was much worse at home (4.25 ERA) than on the road (2.64 ERA) last season and is prone to giving up the longball. I like the Mets in a multi-run win here (-1.5 run line at +143) and we'll give a quick look at a Pete Alonso home run prop if you find one to your liking.

Mets lefty David Peterson looked brilliant in the spring, and he shined against the Marlins last season, allowing two earned runs over 12.1 innings while striking out 15. Miami lefty Jesus Luzardo struggled against the Mets last season, yielding seven earned runs in 9.1 innings. Look for Pete Alonso to get going Friday as New York moves to 2-0.

I'm not about to make any declarations after one game, but pretty clearly Miami blows chunks offensively again this year. New addition Luis Arraez did his part in Thursday's loss to the Mets with two hits, but the Marlins only had five total. While David Peterson on Friday is a step down from facing Max Scherzer on Thursday for the Marlins, Peterson was dominant this spring in allowing just one hit and no runs over 12 innings. He has a 2.74 ERA in 23 career innings vs. Miami. The Marlins' Jesus Luzardo can be quite good but had a 6.75 ERA in nine innings last year vs. the Mets. I may come back and play the total tomorrow when I see lineups.