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Sat, Nov 115:00 pm UTCBeaver Stadium
46 F
Michigan
Wolverines
MICH
Last 5 ATS
W/L13-0
ATS7-5
O/U7-6-0
FINAL SCORE
24
-
15
Penn State
Nittany Lions
PSU
Last 5 ATS
W/L9-2
ATS9-3
O/U6-6-0
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER
Last 5 ATS
13-0
Win /Loss
9-2
7-5
Spread
9-3
7-6-0
Over / Under
6-6-0
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER

Simulation Picks

SPREAD
MICH @ PSU
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MONEYLINE
MICH @ PSU
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OVER / UNDER
MICH @ PSU
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55%
PUBLIC
45%
MONEY
72%
PUBLIC
28%
MONEY
Over59%
PUBLIC
Under41%
Over
MONEY
Under

Understanding Public and Money

Think of 'Public' as the percentage of people betting on each side and 'Money' as how much money is being bet. When there's a big difference between the 'Public' and 'Money' data, it usually means that the more serious bettors (referred to as 'Sharp Money') are favoring a particular side.

Expert Picks

Point SpreadMichigan -4.5 -110
WIN
Unit1.0
+941
15-5 in Last 20 PSU ATS Picks
Adam's Analysis:

Jim Harbaugh or no Jim Harbaugh. Connor Stalions or no Connor Stalions. This seems like the best Michigan team the program has fielded in quite some time, better even than the last two that have advanced to the College Football Playoff. (It's tough to say for sure given its cupcake schedule to this point.) Penn State is flawed offensively with a lack of explosive weapons to take the top off opposing defenses (as we saw against Ohio State). There's no doubt the Wolverines have the motivational edge with the suspension of Jim Harbaugh. I expect the Happy Valley crowd to play a role in keeping this close early, but Michigan should pull away in the second half.

Pick Made: Nov 11, 4:20 pm UTC on DraftKings
Point SpreadMichigan -4.5 -110
WIN
Unit1.0
+374
28-22-2 in Last 52 NCAAF ATS Picks
+144
7-5 in Last 12 MICH ATS Picks
Josh's Analysis:

The Wolverines are the better team, and their "us against the world" mentality is a real thing amid the controversy surrounding coach Jim Harbaugh.

Pick Made: Nov 11, 2:48 pm UTC on Consensus
Point SpreadMichigan -4.5 -108
WIN
Unit1.0
+76
3-2 in Last 5 PSU ATS Picks
Bruce's Analysis:

It looks like no Jim Harbaugh on the the sidelines here. No matter, even as James Franklin had some success vs. lesser Wolverine editions earlier in his career, the current Nittany Lions and QB Drew Allar don't throw the ball downfield often enough to suggest Penn State about to make a breakthrough. Can Allar really "matriculate" (in Hank Stram's vernacular) the field throwing check-down after check-down? Two top-ranked defenses suggest this one is lower scoring likes Nittany Lions-Buckeyes a few weeks ago, but suspect JJ McCarthy's playmaking ability gives Michigan a big edge over Franklin and Allar.

Pick Made: Nov 11, 7:38 am UTC on FanDuel
Point SpreadPenn State +5 -110
LOSS
Unit1.0
+418
34-27-1 in Last 62 NCAAF ATS Picks
+760
11-3 in Last 14 PSU ATS Picks
Micah's Analysis:

Michigan has turned up the volume on opponents and has gone 4-1-1 ATS after starting the season with too high of a rating. They’ve scored 41-points or more in the last five games and gotten Over the total in its last five games. Penn State losing to Ohio State sent them into a two-week-long tailspin and they had trouble with Indiana, but they got back to normal against Maryland last week, 51-15. They’re scoring at home against Michigan. I took the points with Penn State.

Pick Made: Nov 08, 9:23 pm UTC on DraftKings
Point SpreadPenn State +5.5 -115
LOSS
Unit1.0
+1175
54-39 in Last 93 NCAAF Picks
+85
2-1 in Last 3 PSU ATS Picks
Kenny's Analysis:

I think they're going to be elated in Happy Valley after Saturday's game. I've had a high opinion on both Michigan and Penn State all year long. James Franklin's team is 5-0 straight up and 4-1 against the spread while outscoring opponents 45.6 to 9.2 at Home. Their defense is a top five unit. This will be Michigan's first big test with them being a 17-point favorite or great in every game. Penn State's experience versus Ohio State will get them the victory over Michigan. Does spygate catch up to the Wolverines. Take Penn State plus the points and a sprinkle on the money line.

Pick Made: Nov 08, 7:00 am UTC on FanDuel
Point SpreadPenn State +5.5 -110
LOSS
Unit1.0
+1628.5
74-53-1 in Last 128 NCAAF Picks
+590
9-2 in Last 11 NCAAF ATS Picks
Matt's Analysis:

Wow Penn State getting this many points at home. Michigan has played a largely joke of a schedule so far and doesn't this whole cheating thing have to take a toll at some point? PSU at least has played two ranked teams in Ohio State (played well but lost by eight in Columbus) and Iowa (blew out Hawkeyes). The third quarter will be fascinating as the teams have outscored their opponents 211-0 in that quarter this season.

Pick Made: Nov 06, 6:59 pm UTC on FanDuel

Team Injuries

Michigan Wolverines
Saturday, Nov 29, 2025
Avatar
TE
Max Bredeson
Foot
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DB
Rod Moore
Undisclosed
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LB
Ernest Hausmann
Undisclosed
Avatar
RB
Justice Haynes
Foot
Avatar
WR
Semaj Morgan
Undisclosed
Avatar
TE
Hogan Hansen
Undisclosed
Saturday, Nov 22, 2025
Avatar
OL
Evan Link
Knee
Saturday, Nov 15, 2025
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LB
Devon Baxter
Undisclosed
Saturday, Oct 11, 2025
Avatar
RB
Donovan Johnson
Undisclosed
Saturday, Oct 04, 2025
Avatar
WR
C.J. Charleston
Undisclosed
Avatar
LB
Jaydon Hood
Undisclosed
Avatar
OL
Andrew Babalola
Undisclosed
Avatar
WR
I'Marion Stewart
Undisclosed
Penn State Nittany Lions
Saturday, Nov 29, 2025
Avatar
WR
Kaden Saunders
Undisclosed
Avatar
DT
Kaleb Artis
Undisclosed
Avatar
QB
Bekkem Kritza
Undisclosed
Avatar
DE
Jordan Mayer
Undisclosed
Avatar
QB
Jaxon Smolik
Wrist
Avatar
LB
Tony Rojas
Undisclosed
Avatar
S
Antoine Belgrave-Shorter
Undisclosed
Avatar
WR
Josiah Brown
Undisclosed
Avatar
WR
Peter Gonzalez
Undisclosed
Avatar
DE
Max Granville
Undisclosed
Avatar
OL
Liam Horan
Undisclosed
Avatar
RB
Jabree Coleman
Undisclosed
Thursday, Oct 16, 2025
Avatar
QB
Drew Allar
Ankle
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