The last time Alabama coach Nick Saban was slated to miss a game, the spread dropped about three points against Georgia. No doubt, he's among the few coaches who can influence the number. But his absence has had seemingly no impact on the spread against rival Auburn. Which seems odd since coach Gus Malzahn likely still has his job because of his ability to compete against the Tide, including a victory last year. Don't expect a repeat performance but the Tigers should stick around enough to cover.

Nick Saban will not be on the sideline because of COVID-19, but I don't think that it will affect the Crimson Tide for this game. Alabama has scored 40+ points in six straight games and Auburn has scored 30+ in four of its last five games. Alabama QB Mac Jones is putting up Heisman-type numbers and Auburn signal caller Bo Nix has lived up to his 5-star billing the last three weeks, completing 79 percent of his passes, 9.5 yards per pass, five touchdowns and just one interception. Last year the final score was Auburn 48, Alabama 45.

This is a whopper of a spread for a rivalry that is among the nation’s most intense. Mix in last year’s result — the underdog triumphed straight-up — and Auburn should stay within two-dozen points in the Iron Bowl. The Tigers started slowly but have won three in a row outright and ATS. They have gone Under four consecutive times, which suggests Bama’s offense might not be its typically explosive self. The absence of Tide coach Nick Saban (virus) counts for something.

The Iron Bowl has taken a turn the last couple years. It's become a high-scoring affair. Two years ago in Tuscaloosa Alabama won 52-21 and last year the final score was 48-45. Alabama's defense has taken a step forward in recent weeks (basically since halftime against Georgia), but I can't help but believe Gus has something in store for this game. He always does. It might not be enough to cover, but it should be enough to help nudge this game past the total.