No reason to pretend I've had a great read on this series as shaky goaltending has been as much my demise as the Buffalo Sabres. That all being said we're currently seeing a runaway freight train in Montreal's favor with the moneyline moving more than I anticipated on the open. I'm personally closer to a true number in this game of -139 and while I do expect Montreal to win they're not worthy of such an aggressive price. Buffalo has defied the odds all season; why not one more time in hostile territory to send us to Game 7?
I have no idea who wins this game to be clear. Anyone who says they do is lying. Thought Montreal had taken control but then laid a home egg in Game 4 only to win Game 5 on the road. Buffalo has a goaltending problem. Again. That's really all this is. And the Habs are home, and I badly want them to advance. Hockey is more interesting with a Canadian team in the Final Four. And I might have to fly to Montreal if it makes the Cup Final. Might be my last chance this lifetime to see a Cup game there. Probably have to trade a kidney for a ticket but have a spare. So if any of you are up yonder, eh ....
Brett Howden had 12 goals in 58 games during the regular season but has seven in 11 contests this postseason. Since failing to score in Vegas' first three playoff games, he has converted in six of the team's last eight. The fact he didn't score in Game 5 against the Ducks makes me like his chances on Thursday even more, as I'm hesitant to back a player with a lengthy goal-scoring streak (i.e. Anaheim's Beckett Sennecke). I think it's worth taking a chance on Howden in Game 6.
Captain Mark Stone is out again for Vegas, which is also down top-pair blueliner Brayden McNabb due to one-game suspension for a questionable hit in Game 5. Stone has 18 career points in 25 potential series-clinching games like this. Come on Ducks, it's all there for the taking to force a Game 7. Anaheim is 4-1 at home in these playoffs and averaging 4.40 goals per game at the Duck Pond -- if they still call it that.
I was on the Josh Doan assist train for each of Buffalo's last two games and safely reached my desired destination both times, so I'm taking another ride. He's notched an assist in five straight and six of his last seven after going without a point in his first three career playoff games. The Canadiens have yet to find a way to keep Doan off the scoresheet in this series, and I don't see them discovering a method in Game 5.
After scoring a career-high 51 goals to finish two behind Nathan MacKinnon for the Maurice Richard Trophy this season, Cole Caufield tallied just once in Montreal's first nine playoff contests. But he appears to have rediscovered his touch as he ended his five-game drought in Game 3 and converted again two nights later. Including the 2025-26 regular season, Caufield has six goals in eight outings against Buffalo, and I expect him to add to that total Thursday night.
31...yes 31 total power play opportunities is what we've seen from these teams over the last three games. Typically as a series goes deeper and things tighten up a lot of the nonsense goes away and we see officials more reluctant to hand out power plays like Halloween candy. Montreal has really simplified their game on the road this postseason as well averaging just 1.62xG at 5 on 5 away from home. Combine that with Jakub Dobes strong play after a loss (4-0, .948 save percentage, 1.49 GAA) and we have the recipe for an under. Full disclosure I personally split my bet U6 full game and U1.5 (-105) for the 1st period tonight.
Buffalo has made the change in net to Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, and that's mostly what this play is. The Finn has made two career playoff starts and wasn't very good in either. And were both on home ice in Round 1, getting pulled from the last one. Now UPL makes his first road start in maybe the toughest place to play in the NHL -- especially right now as Montreal is going nuts. "Ole, Ole, Ole!" The Habs have woken up offensively in the past two with 11 goals.
Avalanche coach Jared Bednar is making a goalie change as Mackenzie Blackwood will get his first start in about a month. Seems like a bit of a panic move to me, but all I want is overtime. Colorado was 11-3-2 in games following a regulation loss during the season. On the other side, Minnesota's Jesper Wallstedt was notably benched for Game 2, and that didn't work out for the Wild at all. He was terrific back as the guy in the Game 3 victory. Minny's only home loss in these playoffs was in double OT.
Anaheim +1.5 would be nice, but that's ridiculously priced so we'll roll with a half unit on this. The main reason why is that Vegas captain Mark Stone has been ruled out. The veteran had 73 points in only 60 games and was plus-26 during the regular season; he has seven points and is minus-1 in nine playoff games. Vegas does not win the Cup a few years ago without Stone, who deserved the Conn Smythe Trophy but lost out to teammate Jonathan Marchessault.
Buffalo came out on fire in Game 1 and capitalized against a beleaguered Canadiens side; it was Montreal turning the tables in game 2 with with a pair of quick tallies to force Buffalo into a negative game state. Early goals have headlined this series so far yet we've seen both games push a closing total of 6. I expect Buffalo to simplify their approach on the road like they did vs Boston that made them so successful while Montreal showed their defensive mettle at home vs Tampa as well. Tage Thompson appears to be dealing with an undisclosed injury as well that can hamper the Sabres offensive push meaning this contest has all the makings of a 3-2 grudge match.
The Canes may well sweep today, but teams don't win eight straight playoff games for a reason. And go ahead and sweep, just get me to overtime. Any time a Philly team is knocked out, it's also Miller Time! (gross). So we get an automatic overtime cash at a cheaper price than Carolina moneyline? That's almost an always will-play scenario.
I had a chance to see Game 1 up close and personal between these Pacific division rivals. After 60 minutes I came away with a few major observations: one of which that the Ducks are going to be the faster team all series but that Vegas won't stray from their identity. Anaheim was the better team at 5 on 5 but if you're going to win games against a structured opponent like the VGK squandering chances won't work. I really believe we're in for a longer series than oddsmakers think and while it's scary fading Vegas off that lackluster effort Monday I really believe the Ducks will bear down and convert against Hart. This price is too much for me to pass up here.
Buffalo dominated Boston with a +39 shot and +8 goal margin, while Montreal struggled against the Lightning, posting a -40 shot differential. The Canadiens were outshot 29-9 in Game 7 yet pulled off a win. Buffalo finished the regular season mid-pack in high-danger shots for and against, while Montreal was near the bottom with a -39 high-danger differential. Montreal relies on its power play, but Buffalo’s penalty kill is elite (4th in the league). Montreal is fatigued after its taxing Game 7 and tough travel back home. Buffalo's speed (3rd in NHL for bursts over 20 MPH), depth, fresher legs, and Alex Lyon's strong goaltending (1.14 GAA) provide an advantage. In contrast, Montreal’s Jakub Dobes ranks 30th in GAA, exposing their ongoing goalie issues.
This is high (at least one book has under -200), but I simply won't play +1.5 for exactly what happened last night in Ducks-Golden Knights Game 1: A tie game with five minutes left ended as a two-goal result due to an empty-netter. So why not -1.5? Because then I'm toast in overtime. The Wild clearly missed the injured Joel Eriksson Ek and Jonas Brodin in Game 1, and neither will play tonight. Colorado hasn't lost in the postseason yet, although I'd expect Minny to get at least one game back home. On home ice, +1.5 is a different story. The Avs might get back blueliner Josh Manson from injury tonight.