2 Expert Picks
Dorofeyev is on a tear...
MacKinnon hasn't scored in the series...
The Hurricanes were clearly rusty in Game 1 as Frederik Andersen had been historically good in these playoffs before getting shelled in the opener. I expect good Fred tonight in Game 2. He hadn't allowed more than two goals in any other postseason game. And if that happens again, this certainly should cash. It's our only 6.5 on the board.
The reason this is a smaller position for us is because this isn't the best of the number. There was plenty of +70 or better available throughout the market earlier before we learned Cale Makar would be unavailable yet again. Without him logging top minutes this blue line group for the Avs leaves a bit to be desired. Vegas doesn't make anything pretty this time of year but they do like to make life difficult for their opponents. This is a huge chance for them to gain firm control of the series and this price is rich on the group that grades out better on the blue line and in net for me.
How much is Avalanche star defenseman Cale Makar worth to the books? About 20 cents apparently as this number has dropped that much with him ruled out again. But Vegas is again without captain Mark Stone. And the Avalanche simply cannot go down 2-0 heading to Sin City. Since relocating to Denver, the Avalanche are 24-6 in Game 2s at home.
Pavel Dorofeyev registered three or more shots on goal in four consecutive games against Utah in the first round, then recorded just one in each of his next four outings. The 25-year-old Russian right wing is back to shooting with regularity, as he has notched at least three in three straight contests, scoring a total of five times. He's second on the Golden Knights with 32 shots this postseason, and I expect him to continue his shooting spree in Game 1.
Martin Necas set a career high this season with 38 goals. But the 27-year-old Czech center scored just once in nine games over the first two playoff rounds. There's been no lack of trying, as Necas is second on the Avalanche with 25 shots. He recorded three goals in as many meetings with Vegas during the regular season, so I like his chances of breaking out of his slump in this series, beginning with the opening game.
The Avalanche try to win each of their first six home games to start a postseason for the third time in franchise history after previously doing so in 2000 (7-0) and 1997 (6-0). Nathan MacKinnon has a six-game goals streak and tries to become the ninth player in the expansion era with a seven-game run. The Avalanche's only regular-season loss in the series was past regulation. Vegas lost once on the road in each of the first two rounds. Knights captain Mark Stone has missed the past three games injured and remains iffy. He hasn't been practicing, so draw your own conclusions.
No reason to pretend I've had a great read on this series as shaky goaltending has been as much my demise as the Buffalo Sabres. That all being said we're currently seeing a runaway freight train in Montreal's favor with the moneyline moving more than I anticipated on the open. I'm personally closer to a true number in this game of -139 and while I do expect Montreal to win they're not worthy of such an aggressive price. Buffalo has defied the odds all season; why not one more time in hostile territory to send us to Game 7?
I have no idea who wins this game to be clear. Anyone who says they do is lying. Thought Montreal had taken control but then laid a home egg in Game 4 only to win Game 5 on the road. Buffalo has a goaltending problem. Again. That's really all this is. And the Habs are home, and I badly want them to advance. Hockey is more interesting with a Canadian team in the Final Four. And I might have to fly to Montreal if it makes the Cup Final. Might be my last chance this lifetime to see a Cup game there. Probably have to trade a kidney for a ticket but have a spare. So if any of you are up yonder, eh ....
Brett Howden had 12 goals in 58 games during the regular season but has seven in 11 contests this postseason. Since failing to score in Vegas' first three playoff games, he has converted in six of the team's last eight. The fact he didn't score in Game 5 against the Ducks makes me like his chances on Thursday even more, as I'm hesitant to back a player with a lengthy goal-scoring streak (i.e. Anaheim's Beckett Sennecke). I think it's worth taking a chance on Howden in Game 6.
Captain Mark Stone is out again for Vegas, which is also down top-pair blueliner Brayden McNabb due to one-game suspension for a questionable hit in Game 5. Stone has 18 career points in 25 potential series-clinching games like this. Come on Ducks, it's all there for the taking to force a Game 7. Anaheim is 4-1 at home in these playoffs and averaging 4.40 goals per game at the Duck Pond -- if they still call it that.
I was on the Josh Doan assist train for each of Buffalo's last two games and safely reached my desired destination both times, so I'm taking another ride. He's notched an assist in five straight and six of his last seven after going without a point in his first three career playoff games. The Canadiens have yet to find a way to keep Doan off the scoresheet in this series, and I don't see them discovering a method in Game 5.
After scoring a career-high 51 goals to finish two behind Nathan MacKinnon for the Maurice Richard Trophy this season, Cole Caufield tallied just once in Montreal's first nine playoff contests. But he appears to have rediscovered his touch as he ended his five-game drought in Game 3 and converted again two nights later. Including the 2025-26 regular season, Caufield has six goals in eight outings against Buffalo, and I expect him to add to that total Thursday night.
31...yes 31 total power play opportunities is what we've seen from these teams over the last three games. Typically as a series goes deeper and things tighten up a lot of the nonsense goes away and we see officials more reluctant to hand out power plays like Halloween candy. Montreal has really simplified their game on the road this postseason as well averaging just 1.62xG at 5 on 5 away from home. Combine that with Jakub Dobes strong play after a loss (4-0, .948 save percentage, 1.49 GAA) and we have the recipe for an under. Full disclosure I personally split my bet U6 full game and U1.5 (-105) for the 1st period tonight.