Expert Picks
The Blue Jackets may be gassed big-time. ...
Colorado's offensive firepower makes this a tough Over to pass up, especially at home. The Avalanche are averaging 5.00 goals per game at Ball Arena, while Nashville scored six goals in the first meeting between these teams. With the Predators also getting consistent production from Forsberg and Stamkos, I expect both offenses to do enough to push this one over 6.5.
Six goals have been scored in five straight Flyers games, and I like that trend to continue tonight. Jospeh Woll has a 3.22 GAA over his last six starts. On the other side of the ice, Dylan Garand has put up a 3.50 GAA in his last five appearances. Now I’ll admit that neither offense has been spectacular, but with the total sitting at just 5.5, I like our chances for at least six goals tonight.
Jakub Dobes has struggled between the pipes for Montreal, posting a 4.05 GAA through six appearances this season. Utah has a good opportunity to take advantage of that matchup, especially with its offensive upside. Sebastian Cossa gets the start for the Mammoth, and while he has been better recently, he still carries a 2.95 GAA this season. I think Montreal can find enough offense to contribute to the total, and with Dobes’ struggles, I’m expecting Utah to do its fair share of scoring. Take the Over.
Try not to linger on bad beats or the like and stay glass half-full. But I can't shake that incredible, never-seen-before loss by the Habs on Tuesday. So one of two things will happen here in my opinion. They come out like gangbusters to put that to bed. And the good news is that top-line center Nick Suzuki is back. He has been out hurt since Oct. 20. Or that loss lingers for a while and the team falls into a slump. We do catch one break on Utah in that it is starting backup Sebastian Cossa in net, although he has been pretty solid. One of the Mammoth's top-six forwards in Kailer Yamamoto (3G, 4A) is in question after missing the past two.
The NHL really has to set a 60-minute pregame window for announcing lineups as it's ridiculous I had to wait this long to ensure tonight's goalies in Tampa. I hate -1.5 plays honestly. But this is the only possible bet on a side as even the 60-minute number is big. So why not just pass? I'm tied in to both franchises quite a bit, so gotta play something. The Hawks are bad, got blasted in South Florida last night and that means backup Arvid Soderblom (4.66 GAA) here. I expected him but wanted to be 100% on Tampa's Andrei Vasilevskiy and it is him.
Utah isn’t the ideal opponent after a meltdown loss where the Canadians gave up a 4-0 lead with just over two minutes left and lost in overtime on Tuesday. Montreal is 23rd in shots allowed per game and has a -16 shot differential. The Mammoth are 7th in shots allowed and have a +89 shot differential. Utah is also 4th in scoring chances, while Montreal sits at 16th. In high-danger 5-on-5 shots, Utah is +14, and Montreal is even. The Mammoth have not won two in a row since October 15th. Montreal is still without their best defenseman (Mike Matheson), and top center Nick Suzuki remains questionable after missing the last six games. I like the road team in this spot.
The Flyers have started to look capable as a hockey team going forward since a few players have returned from injury over the last seven days. I don't believe oddsmakers have caught up to how their totals need to be priced as a result creating an over edge for us here. The expected Rangers starter Dylan Garand has struggled lately taking on a bigger workload and has allowed 3.64 goals over expected his last 5 appearances. Meanwhile for Philly Dan Vladar and Joseph Woll have both graded out as league average netminders during the same span. Adjusting for current form my fair total on this game is 6 flat so we're looking for offense to headline at MSG on Weds
I have Utah power rated as a top 3 team in the league right now. This team's underlying metrics have been outstanding and the only thing that has skewered them at points is below average goaltending. Utah has made the decision to give Seb Cossa back to back starts and that's what I wanted to see opposing Jakub Dobes. Nick Suzuki is back for the Habs after a prolonged absence but I think his ramp up could be slow. My fair on this game is actually closer to Utah -130
My true number on this game is Penguins -122. Boston is a group I've been selective in fading but prefer doing so when they give Jeremy Swayman a night off and that's what we have tonight. The Bruins are a team that's found a way to get extremely fortunate and currently generating a PDO (shooting percentage + save percentage) well above league average. There's nothing comfortable about betting the Pens but at this price in this matchup with Malkin back in the fold it's worth a wager.
San Jose has been giving up 3.38 goals per game this season, while the Kings aren’t doing much better defensively, allowing 3.46. Neither team has been particularly reliable in net, which is a big reason I’m leaning toward the Over here. The Sharks also have an opportunity to take advantage of an LA penalty kill that has struggled this season, converting at just 61.5%. With both teams capable of finding the back of the net and neither defense giving me much confidence, I like our chances of seeing at least six goals tonight.
Buffalo comes in having won 3 straight, while Ottawa has some major questions in net. Samuel Ersson has struggled this season, posting a 3.78 GAA and .866 SV%, and I see Buffalo taking advantage of that matchup. The Sabres have also won 10 of their last 15 home meetings against Ottawa. At -125, I like the value here. Take the Sabres.
Vancouver already proved it can compete with this Anaheim team, picking up a 6-5 overtime victory in their last meeting on October 27. The Ducks’ defense has allowed 4.2 goals per game over their last 10 games, and Laurent Brossoit is making just his second NHL appearance in three seasons. Vancouver also has the benefit of home ice and an extra day of rest. I don’t love the Canucks’ recent form, but I think there’s enough value in this matchup to take a chance on them getting the job done at +165.
MGM still has this one at -105 and I like the discount so play it there. Jack Hughes and co will face Tristan Jarry and a hot Oilers team. Jarry has pitched back to back shutouts and the Oilers have allowed just one goal in their past three games. Matching up with Connor Helleybuyck and a formidable Devils offense, this should be one of the best games of the night. Our Sportsline model has Hughes projecting around 4.4 shots on goal.
I like the Stars tonight. Dallas has been impressive defensively, allowing just 2.14 goals per game while also doing a great job limiting opponents’ chances. Jake Oettinger has been solid in net, posting a 1.63 GAA and coming off a strong performance against Columbus. On the other side, Washington is coming off a rough 5-1 loss to Minnesota and has allowed 42 goals through its first 13 games. I don’t love what I’ve seen from the Capitals defensively, and I think Dallas has the advantage in just about every area here. I’ll take the Stars to get it done.