The Panthers have won six straight, despite getting outshot in five of the six. The Panthers won four games by one goal (including three OT games) and two games by two goals. The Maple Leafs have no pressure while starting Joseph Woll in goal. He's 6-1-1 with a 2.38 goals against average this season. Florida has all the pressure of trying to close out this series. It's really hard to beat the same team four times in eight days. I think the Maple Leafs show up in this one forcing a Game 5 in Toronto.

I could go into all of the analytics backing the Panthers tonight -- the fact that they're on home ice, that they're up 3-0 in the series, that they're covering in a downright absurd 78% of my model's simulations, making this serious juice worth the squeeze. But I'll just say that even though they finally got the first-round monkey off their backs, the Maple Leafs remain the Maple Leafs, and the sports gods have simply found a new and creative way of making them and their fans miserable. Don't overthink this.