NFL playoff picture, odds entering Week 16: Steelers no longer among AFC favorites, Browns could steal AFC North title; Bills looking at No. 2 seed

On Monday night, the Pittsburgh Steelers were 14.5-point favorites in Cincinnati and had won 11 straight games, including playoffs, over their AFC North rivals, but the Bengals pulled off a stunning 27-17 upset behind third-string quarterback Ryan Finley. Pittsburgh's third straight loss essentially cost it any chance at the AFC's top seed as well as perhaps the AFC North title and a home playoff game. William Hill Sportsbook has dropped the Steelers to a fourth-favorite to win the conference title at +1200 – even behind the Baltimore Ravens (+800), who aren't even a playoff team as things stand.

Pittsburgh (11-3) became only the third team in NFL history to lose three straight games immediately following an 11-0 or better start, alongside the 1969 Rams and 2009 Saints. The Steelers haven't scored more than 17 points in any game during the skid.

Kansas City (13-1) is now all but a lock to be the AFC's top seed and earn its lone first-round bye. All the Chiefs need to do now is beat the visiting Atlanta Falcons on Sunday as double-digit favorites to earn the bye. William Hill lists the Chiefs as clear-cut -160 AFC favorites, while the SportsLine Projection Model gives them a 46.7 percent chance of repeating as conference champions.

The Steelers' loss was a gain for Buffalo (11-3), which already had clinched the AFC East and now is in the driver's seat for the AFC's No. 2 seed – again, though, that doesn't come with a first-round bye any longer. At least it means avoiding the Chiefs until potentially the AFC title game. William Hill lists Buffalo as the +450 second-favorite in the conference and the model gives the Bills at 15 percent chance of winning it.

The Steelers still could clinch the AFC North on Sunday with a home win over the very good Indianapolis Colts (10-4), who are now FAVORED to win in Pittsburgh. That spread changed completely following Monday's game. If the Steelers lose that and Cleveland beats the New York Jets, which seems likely, then the AFC North is tied and would be decided in Week 17 when the Steelers visit the Browns. William Hill lists the Steelers as -350 division favorites and the Browns at +280.

To win the conference, Pittsburgh is down to 6.5 percent via the model, behind Indianapolis (9.1 percent), Tennessee (8.9 percent) and Baltimore (7.1 percent). Cleveland is at 4.1 percent.

Interesting that the Ravens are third-favorites via William Hill in the conference despite currently sitting eighth. Each of the teams in front of them in the Wild-Card race, the Browns, Colts, Titans and Dolphins all won in Week 15.

Baltimore has an incredibly easy schedule left, though, hosting the New York Giants on Sunday and then visiting Cincinnati in Week 17. The model gives the Ravens a 76.5 percent shot at the playoffs. However, if the Ravens win out and each of the other four (Browns, Colts, Titans and Dolphins) do as well, Baltimore would miss the playoffs at 11-5.

AFC Playoff Picture with William Hill odds to win conference/model percentage

1. Chiefs (13-1): -160/46.7%

2. Bills (11-3): +450/15.0%

3. Steelers (11-3): +1200/6.5%

4. Titans (10-4): +1300/8.9%

5. Browns (10-4): +1600/4.1%

6. Colts (10-4): +1500/9.1%

7. Dolphins (9-5): +5000/2.6%

*****

8. Ravens (9-5): +800/7.1%

9. Raiders (7-7): +40000/.01%

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