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New England Patriots betting odds, Week 1 Vegas spread and Cam Newton NFL MVP chances

The Tom Brady-less Patriots are still co-favorites to win the AFC East. Here's their betting breakdown for Week 1 and beyond.
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The New England Patriots have won the AFC East an NFL-record 11 straight seasons, and to make it 12 the Pats will have to do it not just without six-time Super Bowl champion Tom Brady but six players who opted out of the 2020 season due to the coronavirus. That list includes three starters: offensive tackle Marcus Cannon, linebacker and defensive captain Dont'a Hightower and safety Patrick Chung. No other team in the league has had that many players opt out. 

When New England opens against the Dolphins, Bill Belichick will be trying to avenge a shocking 27-24 home loss in last year's regular-season finale. The Pats were 17.5-point favorites and cost themselves a first-round playoff bye, accelerating their postseason downfall and perhaps Brady's exit.

The Patriots had won 10 straight home games vs. Miami and covered seven in a row before that shocker. For Week 1 on Sept. 13, New England is a 6-point favorite on the NFL odds. It will be the Pats debut of Cam Newton as he has won the starting quarterback battle with Jarrett Stidham. That Stidham is dealing with a hip injury and is less than 100 percent torpedoed his chances of winning the job.

Over the past 20 years, backing New England at home vs. the Dolphins has cashed at a 70 percent clip (14-6 ATS).

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS BETTING PROFILE

2019 record: 12-4 (first, AFC East)

2019 against the spread: 8-7-1 ATS

2019 ATS margin: +2.4

2019 Over-Under: 7-9 O-U

2020 strength of schedule: Toughest in NFL; Pats' opponents combined for a .537 winning percentage last year (137-118-1).

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WILLIAM HILL 2020 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS FUTURES ODDS

Win total: 9.5 (Under -145)

To make playoffs: Yes -200, no +170

Division: +125 to win AFC East

Conference: +850 to win AFC

Super Bowl: +2000 to win SB 55

MVP: QB Cam Newton +3000, RB Sony Michel +20000

Coach of the Year: Bill Belichick +850

Defensive POY: CB Stephon Gilmore +2000

Defensive ROY: S Kyle Dugger +4000

Comeback Player of the Year: QB Cam Newton +450

SportsLine Model's projection: 9.3 (with Newton starting)

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS GAME-BY-GAME BETTING TRENDS

Week 1 vs. Miami, 1 p.m. ET: The Under is 7-0 when the Patriots are playing a division game with two non-divisional games on deck.

Week 2 at Seattle, 8:20 p.m. ET (SNF): New England is 23-9 (72 percent) ATS in its last 32 games versus NFC teams.

Week 3 vs. Las Vegas, 1 p.m. ET: The Pats are 42-21-3 (67 percent) ATS in their last 66 home games.

Week 4 at Kansas City, 4:25 p.m. ET: The Over is 5-1 in Pats-Chiefs games since Andy Reid took over in K.C. Last year's 23-16 Chiefs' win in Foxborough (O/U 49) ended a five-game Over streak in the series.

Week 5 vs. Denver, 1 p.m. ET: Over the past four years, the Pats are 7-4 ATS when they have a rest disadvantage. (Broncos play on Thursday night in Week 4).

Week 6: Bye

Week 7 vs. San Francisco, 4:25 p.m. ET: The Pats have covered five straight off a bye and are 9-2 ATS in that spot since 2014, winning by an average of 13.5 points.

Week 8 at Buffalo, 1 p.m. ET: The Pats have won nine of their last 10 games in Buffalo, going 7-3 ATS. 

Week 9 at NY Jets, 8:15 p.m. ET (MNF): The Pats have won their last two visits by a combined 60-13, part of a 14-7 ATS run against the Jets at MetLife Stadium.

Week 10 vs. Baltimore, 8:20 p.m. ET (SNF): The Under is 9-0 the week after New England visits the Jets. Since 2007, the Patriots have only been underdogs 22 times (likely will be here). In those games they're 14-6-2 (70 percent) ATS.

Week 11 at Houston, 1 p.m. ET: The Pats had covered eight straight meetings until losing 28-22 in Houston as 3-point favorites last December

Week 12 at Arizona, 1 p.m. ET: New England is 14-5 (74 percent) ATS vs. NFC foes over the past four years.

Week 13 at LA Chargers, 4:25 p.m. ET: The Pats have won and covered five straight in the series, most recently prevailing 41-28 (-4) in the 2018 Divisional Playoffs.

Week 14 at LA Rams, 8:20 p.m. ET (TNF): New England has covered six straight in the series, the most recent meeting coming in Super Bowl 53 (13-3 Pats).

Week 15 at Miami, 1 p.m. ET: Before their 43-0 cakewalk in Week 2 last year, the Pats had lost five of six in Miami (1-5 ATS).

Week 16 vs. Buffalo, 8:15 p.m. ET (TNF): The Pats have won 17 of the past 20 home meetings, but are just 2-3-1 ATS in the last six, including a half-point cover in Week 16 last year (24-17 win, -6.5). 

Week 17 vs. NY Jets, 1 p.m. ET: The Pats have won 11 straight home meetings. Over the last four, New England has outscored the Jets 135-26 while going 3-1 ATS.

Some trends contributed by SDQL Gurus 

EXPERT PLAY FROM SENIOR ANALYST LARRY HARTSTEIN (60 percent ATS last year): Under 9.5 wins (-145)

Strong-armed second-year pro Jarrett Stidham should develop into a solid starter. But I'm not expecting a ton of success in Year One post-Brady. The Patriots desperately needed a wideout, and somehow they did not add one in a draft loaded with receiver talent. Plus, they face a brutal schedule made more difficult by a fast-improving division. This team won't get to 10 wins, so at worst you're looking at a push. An 8-8 finish seems far more likely.

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Larry HartsteinSenior Analyst

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