Aaron Rodgers trade to Broncos after June 1? Packers say no chance, but sportsbooks keep Denver NFL futures odds lower with possibility of deal

Aaron Rodgers is still a member of the Green Bay Packers. For now.
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The biggest news around the NFL on Thursday wasn't what happened during the first round of the 2021 draft but news leaking that three-time and reigning NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers wanted out of Green Bay. There were multiple rumors of a possible trade to Denver, but Rodgers wasn't dealt during Round 1 and the Packers say the future Hall of Famer is going nowhere. Despite that, sportsbooks such as William Hill lowered the Broncos' 2021 futures odds significantly and they are still there as of this writing.

Early Thursday, the Broncos were +6000 to win Super Bowl 56 at William Hill. When the Rodgers news broke and reports out of Denver were that a trade was close, the team's odds to win the Super Bowl dropped as low as +1300 and currently sit at +1600. To win the AFC, the Broncos dropped from +3000 to +650 – they are now third favorites with Baltimore behind Kansas City (+250) and Buffalo (+600).

Green Bay, meanwhile, has jumped from +1100 to +1800 to win Super Bowl 56 and is now the fourth favorite to win the NFC at +1000 behind Tampa Bay (+300), LA Rams (+550) and San Francisco (+550). The Packers had been +500 second favorites.

William Hill, like pretty much every book, has taken down win totals, division futures and playoff odds for both the Packers (NFC North) and Broncos (AFC West). Rodgers reportedly prefers to go to Denver, Las Vegas or San Francisco.

This is likely all for naught as Packers GM Brian Gutekunst made it clear where the team stands: "We're not going to trade Aaron Rodgers. He's our quarterback, he's our leader. We've been working through for a little while now. It may take some time. He's the guy that makes this thing go. He gives us the best chance to win. We're going to work towards that end."

That said, no Packers QB has played 17 seasons with the team. Rodgers has played 16 seasons (didn't actually play the first three), Brett Favre played 16 and Bart Starr played 16.

If the Packers were to trade Rodgers, it surely would happen after June 1. Long story a short, a trade before that date would leave Green Bay with $38.35 million in dead salary cap money this year. A trade after June 1 would reduce the 2021 cap charge to $14.352 million and push a balance of $17.198 million to 2022, according to Pro Football Talk.

The Niners took QB Trey Lance at No. 3 overall on Thursday, so they presumably would be out of the Rodgers sweepstakes. The Broncos passed on QB Justin Fields and took Alabama cornerback Patrick Surtain at No. 9. Green Bay selected Georgia cornerback Eric Stokes at No. 29. According to reports out of Denver, there were no discussions between the Broncos and Packers before the Surtain pick was made.

Incidentally, this was the 20th consecutive draft the Packers failed to select a receiver during the first round. Two wideouts that Green Bay liked were off the board: Florida's Kadarius Toney to the Giants at No. 20 and Minnesota's Rashod Bateman at No. 27 to the Ravens. Expect the Pack to address the position tonight in Rounds 2-3. 

SL MODEL: DENVER           WIN       WIN%          DIVISION      PLAYOFF       CONF      CHAMP
w/ Bridgewater & Lock 7.3 45.60% 3.40% 14.40% 0.10% <0.1%
w/ Rodgers 10 62.50% 23.60% 58.80% 2.80% 1.00%
Difference 2.7 16.90% 20.20% 44.40% 2.70% 1.00%

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Matt Severance
Matt SeveranceSeverance Pays