2021 NFL Draft: Day 1 Fantasy football winners and losers
Which players saw their Fantasy value impacted the most by the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft?
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The first six picks of the 2021 NFL Draft were all offensive skill position players, and in total, 13 quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends were selected in the first round on Thursday. As a result, the ever-changing Fantasy landscape has shifted once again.
I'll provide a more in-depth look at the biggest winners and losers in a follow-up article once we have the full draft results this weekend. After Day 1, the following players are whose Fantasy value I believe to have been impacted the most.
Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers made Harris the first RB selected in the 2021 draft with the 24th pick, and he will have a shot at playing a three-down role right away. Harris caught 70 passes and found the end zone 11 times as a receiver in his final two seasons at Alabama, so there's a real possibility of him finding the field on passing downs as a rookie.
The 'Pittsburgh RB' position hasn't been as fruitful for Fantasy in the past couple of seasons as we grew accustomed to in the years prior. Pittsburgh led the NFL with a 68 percent pass rate on situation-neutral (score within six points) plays, and no other team had a rate above 65 percent. The Steelers remained super pass-heavy in the red zone too -- their pass rate dropped from 68 percent to 67 percent, while the league average dropped from 57 percent on all situation-neutral plays to 49 percent when in the red zone.
So, I wouldn't just assume Harris is going to come in and play the "Le'Veon Bell role" -- there is a real possibility that the offense will again resemble the pass-heavy scheme we saw in 2020.
Still though, being drafted to a team where Benny Snell and Anthony McFarland represent the top competition for touches is plenty to make Harris stand out as one of the clear winners from Day 1. He has the upside to put up top-15 Fantasy RB type numbers as a back who can play on all three downs in one of the league's better offenses.
Ja'Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Not only does Chase get reunited with the man who fed him 1,780 yards and 20 touchdowns in 2020, he gets to do it in a Cincinnati offense perfectly suited for his skillset. With Tyler Boyd presenting an underneath threat to opposing defenses and ascending talent Tee Higgins demanding attention on the outside, Chase should thrive in a role that presented A.J. Green with plenty of volume in 2020.
You might not believe me, but A.J. Green ranked 11th in the NFL in air yards in 2020 -- ahead of DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Evans, and A.J. Brown. Boyd (108) and Higgins (105) slightly out-targeted him, but Green still finished with 101 targets. He also led the team and ranked 10th among wide receivers in end zone targets.
Green struggled to convert on his opportunity and regularly failed to come down with contested catches, but it is realistic that Chase will find more success in a similar role. Of course, he has familiarity with Burrow from their time at LSU. And if that isn't enough, Chase profiles as one of the best point-of-catch receivers to be drafted in quite some time. He could provide a significant upgrade on contested catches from the league-worst efficiency Green and Burrow combined for.
I was quite encouraged from what we saw from Tee Higgins as a rookie, but neither he nor Boyd profile as 'WR1' types. We saw Burrow show a propensity to lock onto his WR1 at LSU and in his first year as a pro, and it is entirely possible that Chase fills that role as a rookie. I view him as the clear WR1 for Fantasy purposes among the 2021 rookie class, and a Justin Jefferson-like rookie campaign is in the cards if Cincinnati remains anywhere near as pass-heavy as they were with Burrow under center in 2020.
Trey Lance, QB, San Francisco 49ers
Among the five quarterbacks selected, Trey Lance's landing spot clearly seems like the best situation. It's no guarantee that he'll take the job from Jimmy Garoppolo in 2021, but it is a massive W if the only thing standing in the way of a starting gig on an offense that features studs like George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, and Deebo Samuel is a QB who has yet to throw for more than 30 touchdowns or 4,000 yards in seven seasons as a pro.
James Robinson, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
James RB1szn was fun while it lasted. I'm sure we will still hear plenty of coach speak talking Robinson up this offseason, but actions speak louder than words, and Jacksonville used the 25th overall selection to add multi-talented RB Travis Etienne to Urban Meyer's new-look offense.
I don't mean to take away from Robinson's awesome rookie campaign with this statement -- what made James Robinson so great for Fantasy in 2021 was his unique lack of competition. Only four backs had a higher snap rate in 2020, and we saw Robinson push all the way up to an 80-plus percent snap rate in individual games on multiple occurrences when fully healthy. He didn't begin the year playing on obvious passing downs, but once Chris Thompson was injured, Robinson was allowed the opportunity to operate as an every-down player.
The chances of him playing anywhere near the type of role he played in 2020 are quite slim. It's possible that he will continue to defy expectations and we'll have a Chris Carson-Rashaad Penny situation on our hands, but the more likely scenario is that Robinson is an early-down grinder on a team that is likely to be in obvious passing downs while playing from behind rather often.
Hayden Hurst, TE, Atlanta Falcons
The opportunity was there for Hurst in 2020, but not much came from it. He regularly played 80 percent of the snaps prior to a midseason injury, and he was among the leaders in routes run at his position during that time. But with rookie phenom Kyle Pitts added to the offense, Hurst's days of Fantasy relevancy seem to almost certainly be over.
Kadarius Toney, WR, New York Giants
This landing spot really hurt me as a big fan of Toney's game. He is so fun with the ball in his hands, and I was really hoping he would land somewhere like Tennessee, Baltimore, or Green Bay -- where he could make noise from the slot and have a chance at regular playing time.
Instead, he landed in New York, where Sterling Shepard occupies the slot and Kenny Golladay and Darius Slayton stretch the field from the perimeter. There's a possibility that Toney could earn run from the slot as the year goes on and bump Shepard to the perimeter in favor of Slayton. It's also possible that one of Shepard or Golladay will miss time with an injury, as both have struggled to stay on the field with consistency. If either were to happen, Toney has the talent to shine in a larger role. Those don't seem like the most likely scenarios, though. With Golladay, Shepard, Slayton, Saquon Barkley, and Evan Engram all presenting competition for targets, it is going to be difficult to project Toney for a Fantasy-relevant role as a rookie.
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