2021 NFL Draft odds, pick: Six first-round quarterbacks picked would require Kellen Mond or Davis Mills to sneak in; oddsmakers heavily favor no

The 2021 NFL Draft is finally here, with the first round having Thursday night to itself from Cleveland. Every draft these days is about quarterbacks, and this year's version is no different. Five quarterbacks are locks to go in Round 1, but could there be a record-tying six? That would require a team "reaching" for someone like Stanford's Davis Mills or Texas A&M's Kellen Mond. William Hill Sportsbook oddsmakers have an Over/Under of 5.5 first-round QBs, with the Under a heavy -600 favorite. Bettors would have to wager $600 to win $100. The Over is +400, meaning a $100 wager would return $400. 

The lone draft with six first-round quarterbacks was the epic 1983 class that saw Hall of Famers John Elway, Jim Kelly and Dan Marino, along with Todd Blackledge, Tony Eason and Ken O'Brien all selected. There were only 28 first-round picks back then and Marino went 27th to Miami.

We know for certain that Trevor Lawrence is going No. 1 to Jacksonville tonight and Zach Wilson No. 2 to the New York Jets. San Francisco is probably taking Mac Jones at No. 3. Trey Lance and Justin Fields are going in Round 1, perhaps both gone by No. 10.

Thus, 2021 will mark the third time in the common draft era (since 1967) that at least four quarterbacks will go in Round 1 consecutive years; they also did in 2003-04 & 2011-12 (and obviously last year). Quarterbacks have gone 1-2-3 twice since 1967 but have never been selected with each of the first four picks.

Florida's Kyle Trask finished fourth in the 2020 Heisman Trophy voting but he isn't considered a realistic first-round pick after a disastrous game vs. Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl. Trask is given an Over/Under draft position of 72.5.

Reaching six QBs, then, will come down to Mills or Mond.

Via sister site 247Sports, Mills was the No. 1 pro-style quarterback in the recruiting Class of 2017 (ahead of Jones, Mond and Tua Tagovailoa), but he barely played in his career at Stanford, just 11 starts (14 total games) due to injury. Mills does have prototypical pocket-passer size at 6-foot-4, 220 pounds and has a rocket arm. He's also used to playing under center, which most college QBs don't do these days. Mills is given an Over/Under draft position of 65.5 – the start of Round 3.

On the flip side, Mond, the No. 3 dual-threat quarterback recruit in the country in 2017, was a four-year starter at Texas A&M who was 3-0 as a starter in bowl games and holds school records for career passing TDs (71), passing yards (9,661), completions (801), attempts (1,358) and total offense (11,269). That total offense mark ranks seventh in SEC history, and Mond's 93 touchdowns responsible for are 10th in conference history.

Mond also was named MVP of this year's Senior Bowl. The 6-foot-3, 210-pounder is very mobile but scouts question his accuracy with a career completion percentage of 59.0. NFL.com compares him to Colin Kaepernick.  Mond is given an Over/Under draft position of 80.5, which is well into Round 3. NBC Sports' Chris Simms ranked Mond as the No. 4 QB in the draft, ahead of Fields and Lance.

The Chicago Bears have been linked to both Mills and Mond. So have the New England Patriots, Minnesota Vikings, New Orleans Saints and the Washington Football Team to name a few.

Free NFL picks: Under 5.5 first-round QBs (-550), Under 65.5 on Mills (-115), Under 80.5 on Mond (-115)

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